Donald Trump’s 50% tariff: A boon or blow for US aluminium companies?

As voices from aluminium associations across US trade-allied nations grow louder, one consensus is becoming clear that the United States’ decision to increase tariffs on aluminium imports to 50 per cent is unlikely to benefit its global partners. Now, whether this bold move by Donald Trump will favour his own domestic market or not is the pressing question that continues to divide the aluminium industry. The United States relies heavily on overseas suppliers for primary aluminium, downstream products, as well as scrap. Imposing such a steep tariff across these categories raises concerns over potential supply disruptions within the country, yet some US-based producers are betting on gains.

Century Aluminum, a primary aluminium producer, sees the tariff as an opportunity, believing that supply tightness will push prices higher, strengthening its bottom line. Indeed, the market appears to be aligning with this estimation. As of June 11, LME aluminium was trading at USD 2,511.50 per tonne, while the Midwest premium reached a record USD 1,194 per tonne surging by 190 per cent since Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024. Since the start of June, the premium alone has jumped 42.5 per cent from USD 838 per tonne.

Consultancy Harbor Aluminum also warned that premium might reach USD 1,543 a tonne to fully reflect the 50 per cent tariff, cautioning that such levels may suppress demand. Echoing this concern, S&P Global reported growing unease among traders and consumers about possible demand destruction, though likely not before October 2025. If demand falters, even primary producers like Century Aluminum may struggle to capitalise on the tariff hike.