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Demand growth for aluminium to be about 15pct - NALCO
Edited by : AL CIRCLE
3 min read
In an interview with ET Now, Mr BL Bagra CMD of NALCO talks about the aluminium demand and company's prospects.
Excerpts:
Q - How do you see the demand for aluminium in India for FY12 do you see it rising?
A - The growth of demand in India is mainly triggered by the power transmission industry and the investment in the power transmission is at the very fast pace. And therefore we maintain that the demand of growth of aluminium metal in India will still outpace the general growth rate in the economy. It will touch almost 13% to 15% of the growth rate. The other sectors which are emerging very fast are the transport and the packaging sector in India. In the transport, particularly the new generation cars due to fuel economy as well as the growing awareness about the fuel efficiency of using aluminium metal in the buses, trucks as well as in the railway wagons and passenger coaches that will trigger the demand and there is immense potential of such consumption in India. Therefore for the next even one decade we feel that the demand growth in India for aluminium metal will be in the range of 13% to 15% every year.
Q - Give us your outlook then on aluminium prices going forward, how are you seeing them kind of pan out?
A - Aluminum prices for the year, we expect that it should close in the range of 2500 to 2700 and at that expectation is best on two factors. One the consistent demand and the recovery what we are witnessing at a very slow pace but consistently in Europe and America in transport sector and another is a cost push factor. The prices of energy and carbon both have been going up over last one year as because of this cost push factor also the prices will be above USD 2500. And the year should close at an average of above USD 2500.
Q - So how would realizations pan out for NALCO in FY 2012?
A - Realization in India depends it is an interplay of the two factors the LME metal price as we discussed and another is the exchange rate of US dollar and rupee exchange rate. If the exchange rate is content around INR 45 plus minus then we will be having an average realization of 0.121 million per tonne to 0.125 million per tonne.
Excerpts:
Q - How do you see the demand for aluminium in India for FY12 do you see it rising?
A - The growth of demand in India is mainly triggered by the power transmission industry and the investment in the power transmission is at the very fast pace. And therefore we maintain that the demand of growth of aluminium metal in India will still outpace the general growth rate in the economy. It will touch almost 13% to 15% of the growth rate. The other sectors which are emerging very fast are the transport and the packaging sector in India. In the transport, particularly the new generation cars due to fuel economy as well as the growing awareness about the fuel efficiency of using aluminium metal in the buses, trucks as well as in the railway wagons and passenger coaches that will trigger the demand and there is immense potential of such consumption in India. Therefore for the next even one decade we feel that the demand growth in India for aluminium metal will be in the range of 13% to 15% every year.
Q - Give us your outlook then on aluminium prices going forward, how are you seeing them kind of pan out?
A - Aluminum prices for the year, we expect that it should close in the range of 2500 to 2700 and at that expectation is best on two factors. One the consistent demand and the recovery what we are witnessing at a very slow pace but consistently in Europe and America in transport sector and another is a cost push factor. The prices of energy and carbon both have been going up over last one year as because of this cost push factor also the prices will be above USD 2500. And the year should close at an average of above USD 2500.
Q - So how would realizations pan out for NALCO in FY 2012?
A - Realization in India depends it is an interplay of the two factors the LME metal price as we discussed and another is the exchange rate of US dollar and rupee exchange rate. If the exchange rate is content around INR 45 plus minus then we will be having an average realization of 0.121 million per tonne to 0.125 million per tonne.
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