The year 2025 has begun, and along with it, a lot of speculations and anticipations for the global aluminium industry's headway as the metal is furthering towards becoming one of the most widely used components in various industrial sectors while at the same time navigating many challenges and also adapting to sustainability initiatives and the circular economy. Especially after a year of tight raw material supply, enthusiastic volume of primary aluminium production, increasing demand, and numerous efforts across the value chain aimed at net-zero emission goals, it is inevitable to have a spirit of inquiry. This article, containing a comprehensive overview of the key events and updates from December 2024, will help you understand the industry's current position.
Ghana’s bauxite mining progress
Ghana, one of the world's largest bauxite-producing countries but which has been suffering from floods causing raw material supply chain constraints for alumina production, is prioritising the enhancement of mining. In early December 2024, Presidential candidate John Dramani Mahama from the National Democratic Congress (Ghana) assured the residents of Nyinahin a development in the indigenous bauxite mining to create local jobs and drive national economic growth.
He said, "We will engage with the chiefs regarding the construction of a railway from Takoradi to Nyinahin to facilitate the easy transportation of bauxite. Additionally, we will construct a factory for aluminium production to create more jobs for the youth."
Ashanti Bauxite Limited, a joint venture between the Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation (GIADEC) and Rocksure International Limited, already announced ambitious plans to develop a bauxite mine with an integrated refinery in the Nyinahin-Mpasaaso area of the Ashanti Region, which will boost production and expand the availability of the ore, while at the same time support local employment.
US bauxite import gain in Q3
The United States' crude and dried bauxite imports continued to increase sequentially in the third quarter of 2024, primarily driven by Turkey. According to the US Census Bureau Survey, the United States imported 553,000 tonnes of bauxite, reflecting a Q-o-Q increase of 5 per cent. Turkey, which reduced its bauxite supply to the United States for an interim period from Q1 to Q2, increased its export volume significantly in the third quarter of 2024. In Q3, Turkey supplied 187,000 tonnes of bauxite to the US, compared to 24,000 tonnes in Q2 and 180,000 tonnes in Q3 2023.
Bauxite market regains confidence at ASX
John Forwood, Chief Investment Officer at Lowell Resources Fund, emphasised the renewed focus on ASX stocks due to the recent surge in ore prices, which could potentially drive stocks back to the IPO market in 2025. The rise in bauxite and alumina prices caught the attention of some of Australia’s top fund managers, particularly in these commodities. As of December 2, Guinea bauxite price in the Chinese market was US$92 per tonne, and the Australian alumina FOB price stood at US$785 per tonne, marking year-to-date increases of 20 per cent and 126 per cent, respectively. These price hikes greatly benefitted Metro Mining, with its share price soaring by 215 per cent.
New premium for Japanese aluminium buyers
The continued negotiation for Japanese aluminium shipment premiums for the March quarter 2025 led to a reduction in the offer price from global producers. According to Reuters report, the amount agreed upon by Japanese buyers for Q1 2025 is $228 per tonne, down by 0.87-12 per cent from the previous offered price of $230-260 per tonne. However, despite the decline, it is the highest premium since 2015 and 30 per cent more than the premium for the ongoing quarter of $175 per tonne.
Sumitomo Chemical exits aluminium smelting
In December, Japanese industry giant Sumitomo Chemical announced its decision to sell 2.97 per cent stake in Nippon Amazon Aluminium Co., Ltd. (NAAC) to YKK AP Inc. This move, coupled with the previously announced sale of shares in two overseas aluminium smelting companies in May 2024, marks the company's complete withdrawal from the resale business of imported aluminium ingots. To know more, click here.
Stricter sanctions on Russian aluminium
Ten European member states jointly appealed for stricter sanctions on Russian metals, including aluminium, with a common objective to reduce Russia’s revenue from metal exports since it is a critical source of income after fossil fuels. Currently, the European Union has sanctions on some specific Russian aluminium products like wire, pipes, and foil, which account for less than 15 per cent of the bloc’s total metal imports. To learn what impacts Europe may face from aluminium bans on Russia, click here.
Increased share of Russia-origin aluminium in LME-approved warehouses
As a result of European bans on Russian aluminium, the proportion of Russia-origin aluminium in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in November 2024 grew to 67 per cent, following a drop in the previous month from 66 per cent to 65 per cent. Although the proportion increased, the volume of stocks continued to drop, amounting to 254,500 tonnes at the end of November, as LME-registered warehouses still restrict aluminium-made-in-Russia.
Inverted duty structure for aluminium goods in the Union Budget 2025-26
The Indian Government may consider addressing the issue of inverted duty structure for some products in the aluminium sector in the forthcoming Union Budget for the fiscal year 2025-26. The news came on December 11 after an official said the government would revisit the inverted duty structure to protect and boost domestic manufacturing. Inverted duty structure refers to a situation where the domestic industry pays a higher cost for raw materials in terms of duty while the finished products land at lower duty and cost, leading to credit accumulation and compounding expenses.
These were the key events in the global aluminium industry in December 2024. To understand their impact on the aluminium value chain and stay updated on the latest market trends, continue reading our news. For a detailed market projection for 2025, refer to AL Circle’s comprehensive report, "Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2025."
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