
Chinese aluminium industry’s prosperity index declined to the lowest in April 2020 since the first report launched in November 2015, according to the latest report released by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Decreasing by 1.2 points, the prosperity index of China’s aluminium industry came in at 17.8 points in April, shows the report.

Despite the anticipated growth in China’s primary aluminium demand in the coming months along with the estimated recovery in economic activity, the index is likely to remain low for some time to come. This could be primarily due to the uncertainty of the lasting impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the downstream aluminium demand.
The COVID-19 outbreak already affected the fixed asset investment in the aluminium smelting industry, leading to a fall by 47.7 per cent in the first three months of 2020. Meanwhile, the daily output of primary aluminium and alumina declined by 6.1 per cent and 7.4 per cent month-on-month to 96,000 tonnes and 182,000 tonnes, respectively, on a seasonally adjusted basis in March.
However, thanks to the strong demand from construction, transportation, and electricity sectors, the consumption of aluminium profiles increased significantly. China’s aluminium products output also increased by 33.7 per cent from 3.95 million tonnes in April 2019 to 5.28 million tonnes in April 2020. But China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products declined 15 per cent month-on-month to 441,177 tonnes, as countries outside China were under lockdown since late March.
China’s primary aluminium smelters could generate profit in April, given the hike in prices due to lower stocks and stable consumption. The primary aluminium inventories by the end of April were down by more than 500,000 tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes.
Most of China’s alumina refiners, on the other hand, made losses as the drop in production costs failed to make up for the constant decline in alumina prices.
CNIA’s aluminium industry prosperity index is composed of LME aluminium settlement price, investment in aluminium smelting, floor space of commercial buildings sold, power generation, alumina production, aluminium products exports, broad money supply or M2, primary aluminium production, main business revenues and total profits.
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