As tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt one of the world’s most critical trade corridors, global aluminium buyers are turning towards China in search of supply stability. But while China’s exports are accelerating rapidly, the bigger question remains - can the country truly offset the growing supply risks emerging from the Gulf region?
The changing trade pattern is becoming increasingly evident across major markets including India, Mexico, United States, Vietnam and South Korea, where importers are ramping up purchases from China amid concerns over freight uncertainty, tighter supply availability and potential disruptions to Gulf-linked shipments.
China shipments jump amid Gulf uncertainty
China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products climbed sharply in April 2026, reaching 598,000 tonnes, according to SMM. The figure was 15.4 per cent higher than the 518,000 tonnes exported in April last year and marked the country’s strongest monthly export performance since December 2024, when shipments stood at 506,000 tonnes.
The surge also reflected strong month-on-month growth. Exports rose 23.3 per cent from 485,000 tonnes in March, translating into an additional 113,000 tonnes shipped within a single month. Earlier in the year, China had already exported 969,118 tonnes of aluminium and aluminium products during January and February, indicating that export momentum had been steadily building before the sharp April jump.
By the end of April, cumulative exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products reached 2.054 million tonnes, up 9.1 per cent from 1.883 million tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
The rise in shipments comes as overseas buyers accelerate purchases amid uncertainty surrounding the middle east conflict and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, developments that have intensified concerns over supply availability and rising logistics costs.
Analysts believe the export rally is being driven not only by immediate supply fears, but also by buyers attempting to secure inventories before geopolitical tensions push transportation and production expenses even higher. Chinese manufacturers have responded by increasing overseas shipments, while importers continue diversifying sourcing strategies to reduce dependence on supply routes exposed to Gulf-related disruptions.
Which countries are driving China’s export growth?
China’s aluminium exports are finding growing support from buyers across Asia and North America as trade flows continue to shift in 2026.
In 2025, Mexico emerged as China’s largest export destination for aluminium and aluminium products with imports of 612,170 tonnes, followed by India at 471,583 tonnes and South Korea at 450,715 tonnes. Vietnam imported 412,036 tonnes during the year, while Thailand and Japan received 312,143 tonnes and 271,075 tonnes respectively.
The trade pattern continued to shift in early 2026. Mexico retained its position as China’s top export destination during the first two months of the year with imports of 89,785.16 tonnes, despite a 4.9 per cent year-on-year decline.
India recorded the strongest growth among major buyers, with imports rising 23.2 per cent to 67,017.47 tonnes from 54,392 tonnes, making it China’s second-largest aluminium export market.
The United States entered China’s top six aluminium export markets in 2026, ranking third with imports of 61,767.24 tonnes. In contrast, Japan dropped out of the top six rankings after importing 36,883.68 tonnes during the first two months of 2025.
Vietnam slipped from second to fourth place despite a relatively moderate decline of 6.9 per cent to 55,199.74 tonnes. South Korea’s imports eased around 4 per cent to 52,175.55 tonnes from 54,355 tonnes, while Thailand recorded a 7.6 per cent decline to 49,951.72 tonnes.
Gulf supply disruptions deepen market uncertainty
The growing reliance on China is emerging at a time when aluminium producers across the Gulf region are facing mounting supply and operational challenges. The Gulf accounts for nearly 10 per cent of global aluminium production and contributes around 9 per cent of worldwide aluminium supply chain flows, with the region collectively exporting more than 5 million tonnes of wrought and unwrought aluminium every year.
In 2025, the UAE exported 2.38 million tonnes of aluminium, followed by Bahrain at 1.36 million tonnes. Qatar shipped 691,648 tonnes, while Saudi Arabia and Oman exported 473,937 tonnes and 309,180 tonnes respectively.
Restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s strategic measures are increasingly disrupting regional aluminium trade flows and creating uncertainty over shipment movement and delivery timelines. At the same time, operational disruptions across major Gulf smelters are adding further strain to the market. Qatalum is currently operating at only 60 per cent of its aluminium production capacity, Alba has reduced output by 19 per cent across Potlines 1, 2 and 3, while Emirates Global Aluminium has suspended operations at a smelter with an annual nameplate capacity of 1.5 million tonnes for one year. Also read: China seizes opportunity to boost aluminium exports amid the Middle East conflict – which countries stand to gain?
Can China fully replace Gulf supply?
With more than 5 million tonnes of wrought and unwrought aluminium trade potentially exposed to disruption, buyers are increasingly shifting towards Chinese supply.
China exported 2.054 million tonnes of aluminium and aluminium products during the first four months of 2026, translating into an average monthly shipment volume of around 513,500 tonnes.
If this export pace continues through the remaining eight months of the year, China’s total aluminium and aluminium products exports could reach roughly 6.1-6.2 million tonnes by the end of 2026. The estimate is based on annualising the current January-April shipment trend.
The figures suggest China is rapidly strengthening its role as the market’s fallback supplier. However, given the scale of aluminium production and trade flows linked to the Gulf region, China alone may not be able to fully offset the impact of any prolonged disruption across the Middle East.
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