China’s aluminium demand to decrease 5.4% in 2020 and grow 6% in 2021: Miles Prosser, Secretary General of IAI

Aluminium demand in China is expected to decrease by 5.4 per cent in 2020 and rebound by 6 per cent in 2021, said Miles Prosser, Secretary General of the International Aluminium Institute, while speaking to local and international delegates at the Shanghai Metals Market's 2020 Nonferrous Metals Industry Chain Annual Conference in Suzhou.

Prosser has analysed that the COVID-19 pandemic would be having a profound impact on global economic activities in the near term, resulting in a decline in aluminium demand. In the medium term, a large number of regions and markets across the globe would be affected, creating a maximum impact on the transportation and construction industries.

The pandemic is also likely to affect the recovery cycles of the metals. For instance, the recovery cycle of aluminium is expected to slow down by 5 to 7 years, according to Miles Prosser. He said the impact of the pandemic on the industry has not yet fully appeared.

However, in the long run, despite the acute impact of the pandemic, the demand for aluminium looks promising, said Prosser. By 2050, the demand for the lightweight metal is likely to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.8 per cent.