China's domestic alumina prices on downtrend despite production halt by Xinfa’s Jiaokou refinery

According to Fastmarkets reports, the China’s alumina supply has not been affected by the full production cut at Xinfa Group’s Jiaokou alumina refinery. The market has not showed any sign of tightness till now.

As shown by Shanghai Metals Market’s data, China’s alumina price has been continuing its downward trend.  The average spot alumina price at China’s domestic market stands at RMB 3,078(US$444) per tonne on Tuesday June 11. Imported alumina price also dropped to an average of RMB 3,050 per tonne on Tuesday June 11 after two consecutive losses. A significant drop in imported alumina prices might encourage more import for alumina. However, the market is not tight. Alumina output during January-May remained 4.29 per cent higher YoY and stood at 29.56 million tonnes.

It was predicted that the domestic alumina price will go up after Xinfa’s Jiaokou refinery totally stopped production at the beginning of June. Despite the output drop of 1.4% in May and expected production drop in June, alumina prices are still on a downward curve. Shanghai Metals Market’s data shows domestic alumina prices started falling from RMB 3163 per tonne on May 28 to the current RMB 3,078 per tonne, though it is 11% higher than the beginning of May when it stood at RMB 2,778 per tonne.

Analysts believe that the market is not lacking material after Xinfa’s Jiaokou plant’s production halt last week. Although there might be some supply gaps in the market, domestic alumina traders have plenty of ready stocks.