
We have recently covered a story on how Sanction against Rusal drove a quick surge in alumina export from China. China exported more than 300,000 tonnes of alumina as of May 4, since the profit window opened in April following the US sanctions against Rusal, SMM learned. The export started in Shandong and Guangxi provinces, but has recently expanded to Shanxi province.
SMM believes China’s alumina export is set to decline but the downward room is limited as profits remain intact for the suppliers. They see that alumina output in Shandong and Guangxi is unlikely to drop in short and medium term and production in Shanxi as well as Henan provinces are rising on export margins, SMM believes.
{alcircleadd}The following table shows today’s alumina prices in China:

Major producers and traders now prefer exports over domestic sales as export prices hit US$ 519 per tonne ex-works, including tax compared with an average of RMB 3,118 per tonne in the domestic market.
Australian alumina prices stood at $644 per tonne as of Friday May 4, according to SMM assessment, as global supply remained tight. No alumina from Rusal has been traded in the market despite the ease of sanctions. 50% production cut at Hydro’s Alunorte has led to a monthly loss of 267,000 tonne and the refinery is expected to resume production only in July. So, despite inferior quality, competitive pricing will keep driving export of alumina from China.

On the operational level, it costs a mere RMB 5 per tonne to switch bag-packed Chinese alumina into bulk loaded. SMM believes China’s alumina exports are likely to put pressure on international prices. At an export rate of some 200,000 tonne per month, Chinese alumina prices are likely to hover above US$ 471.4 per tonne.
In another update, China's inventory of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, inched up to 2.21 million tonnes as of Monday May 7 as more deliveries arrived, according to SMM data. According to SMM, the downstream demand remains firm. The increase has more to do with latent inventory change, including stocks at traders moving to major consumption markets.
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