Century Aluminium shares surge $42.85, analysts release their ratings

Century Aluminum’s stock rally has gathered fresh momentum, with shares climbing past USD 42.85. The move places the stock close to its 52-week high of USD 45.58, well above its 52-week low of USD 13.05, underscoring renewed confidence in the US-based primary aluminium producer amid tightening supply dynamics and growing demand for low-carbon aluminium.

Analyst upgrades reshape the investment narrative

Following the share hike, Weiss Ratings reissued a “hold (c)” rating in a research report dated Wednesday, October 8. Similarly, Wells Fargo & Company also assigned a “hold” rating, raising its price target from USD 37.00 to USD 46.00. 

Other firms like BMO Capital Markets and B. Riley lifted target prices from USD 30.00 to USD 34.00 and USD 25.00 to USD 28.00, respectively,  reaffirming a “buy” and “outperforming" ratings.

In total, one analyst has issued a Strong Buy rating, three have rated the stock Buy, and one has maintained a Hold. According to MarketBeat.com, Century Aluminum currently carries a consensus rating of “Buy” with an average target price of USD 36.00, a figure the market has already surpassed, suggesting expectations may continue to evolve.

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Stock performance signals a structural shift

Century Aluminum’s recent price action has been striking. Shares opened at USD 42.85 on Monday, well above the company’s 50-day moving average of USD 32.66 and 200-day moving average of USD 27.11, pointing to a sustained bullish trend rather than a short-lived spike.

Century has market capitalisation of USD 4.00 billion, a beta of 2.26, and a P/E ratio of 50.41. Its balance sheet shows a current ratio of 1.71, a quick ratio of 0.79, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69, reflecting manageable leverage in a capital-intensive industry.

Earnings: a miss, but not a momentum breaker

Century Aluminum last reported earnings on Thursday, November 6, posting earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.56, missing analysts’ consensus estimate of USD 0.79 by USD 0.23. Despite the miss, revenue came in at USD 632.20 million, slightly above expectations of USD 629.85 million, and marked a 0.7 per cent year-on-year increase.

During the same quarter in the previous year, the company earned USD 0.63 EPS, providing additional context to the current-quarter shortfall. Century Aluminum delivered a net margin of 3.47 per cent and a return on equity of 12.83 per cent, reinforcing the view that operational discipline is improving even in a challenging pricing environment. Analysts now expect the company to post full-year EPS of USD 2.76, supporting bullish longer-term projections.

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Institutional investors increase exposure

Perhaps the strongest signal of confidence has come from institutional investors. Hedge funds and large asset managers now own 61.59 per cent of Century Aluminum’s outstanding shares, highlighting growing conviction in the company’s strategy.

Fox Run Management L.L.C. initiated a new position during the second quarter valued at approximately USD 641,000. Assenagon Asset Management S.A. raised its stake by 103.1 per cent in the third quarter to 407,939 shares, valued at around USD11,977,000, after acquiring an additional 207,040 shares. Icon Advisers Inc. Co. also opened a new position during the second quarter valued at roughly USD 5,860,000.

Thomist Capital Management LP boosted its holdings by 489.0 per cent in the second quarter to 221,746 shares, valued at approximately USD 4,003,000, after acquiring an additional 184,100 shares in the last quarter. Whereas Monaco Asset Management SAM increased its stake by 67.3 per cent to 230,000 shares, valued at about USD 4,003,000, after purchasing an additional 92,500 shares in the last quarter.

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Low-carbon focus strengthens Century Aluminum’s growth outlook

Century Aluminum’s rally is unfolding against a favourable industry backdrop. As a producer of low-carbon, high-purity aluminium, the company is well-positioned to benefit from rising demand across automotive, aerospace, and renewable energy supply chains.

Established in 1995, Century Aluminum has grown into a significant North American aluminium producer with an expanding international footprint, while maintaining a focus on energy-efficient operations and cost management. The company operates primary aluminium smelting facilities in Hawesville, Kentucky; Mount Holly, South Carolina; and Grundartangi, Iceland, combining scale with access to cleaner energy sources, an increasingly valuable differentiator as sustainability metrics continue to influence capital flows.

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