CBIX down, alumina steadies, freight up

<p>CBIX fell 1.7% (US$0.8/dmt) to US$46.7/dmt with low Value in Use (ViU) priced Malaysian ore weighing on the week&rsquo;s average, despite cargos of higher ViU ore from Guinea and Brazil. Malaysian prices remain unmoved on US$27.5/dmt FOB for un-washed ore and US$39.5/dmt FOB for washed material.<br /><br />Chinese domestic alumina prices steadied, with the north price down 0.2% (RMB5/t or US$0.7/t) to RMB2,731/t (US$399/t) and the south, which typically lags the north, up 2.3% (RMB62/t or US$9.1/t) to RMB2,727/t (US$398/t). Smelter restarts and ramp-ups continue in China, increasing demand for alumina and prompting further alumina capacity restarts and ramp-ups. This comes despite falls in the primary aluminium price, driven by higher deposit rules for trading on the Shanghai Exchange, which we see as an attempt by the authorities to hose down a heated market.</p> <p><img style="vertical-align: middle; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="http://www.alcircle.com/uploads/images/Alumina21.png" alt="News" width="517" height="226" /><br />Meanwhile, further rounds of government environmental inspections of smelters and refineries are reported to be hampering ramp-up efforts - there are even some suggestions that capacity could be idled as a direct consequence of the inspections. The inspections, coupled with the crackdown on truck overloading, have already impacted markets, partially contributing to the primary aluminium and alumina price increases witnessed during Q4. Another direct impact of the inspections has been the curtailment of some domestic bauxite supply, which is tightening in Shanxi and Henan, with prices now around RMB100/t higher than Q1 2016.</p> <p><strong>{googleAdsense}</strong></p> <p>In the short term, we think current alumina prices are likely to be supported, at least through to China's lunar new year. However, we may see further volatility in the market, as trading rules change and government environmental inspections continue.<br /><br />Capesize freight rates on the Guinea-Shandong route were up 15% (US$2.0/wmt) to US$14.7/wmt on the back of higher vessel timecharter rates. This was despite an easing in bunker (fuel) prices. On the North Australia to Shandong route, panamax freight rates were also higher, up 4% (US$0.2/wmt) to US$5.7/wmt, again on the back of higher vessel timecharter rates.</p> <p><span style="border-radius: 2px; text-indent: 20px; width: auto; padding: 0px 4px 0px 0px; text-align: center; font: bold 11px/20px 'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,sans-serif; color: #ffffff; background: #bd081c url('data:image/svg+xml;base64,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') no-repeat scroll 3px 50% / 14px 14px; position: absolute; opacity: 1; z-index: 8675309; display: none; cursor: pointer;">Save</span></p>