Canada’s aluminium exports slide 2% as US tariffs drive the H1 2026 decline

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The first half (H1) of 2026 witnessed a significant slide of nearly 2 per cent in Canada’s export chart of aluminium products. As of H1 2026, Canada’s exports of all aluminium product categories, viz., unwrought, bars, rods and profiles, foil, pipes and tubes, plates, sheets and strips, tube or pipe fittings, and wire, stood at 2.68 million tonnes.

Comparing the H1 2026 trade volume with that over the past two years, the year-on-year gap appears to have widened:  

H1 2026 vs 2025 – 2.68 million tonnes vs 2.73 million tonnes, down 1.86 per cent Y-o-Y

H1 2025 vs 2025 – 2.73 million tonnes vs 2.77 million tonnes, down 1.48 per cent Y-o-Y

Comparing the annual export volumes, 2025 saw exports of 4.82 million tonnes, marking a Y-o-Y decline of 11.3 per cent from the export volume of 5.42 million tonnes reported in 2024.

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Top 5 destinations of Canada: H1 2026, H1 2025, H1 2024

The following are the top 5 destinations for Canada’s aluminium exports over the years of 2026, 2025 and 2024 across the January-June period:

The US: Canada’s biggest market, but exports fall

The US remained by far Canada’s largest aluminium export destination, although shipments have continued to decline. Exports stood at 1,039,551 tonnes in H1 2026, down 25.03 per cent from 1.39 million tonnes in H1 2025. The decline follows a further 14.59 per cent drop in H1 2025 from 1,623,479 tonnes in H1 2024.

Across the two years, Canada’s aluminium exports to the US therefore fell by approximately 35.97 per cent.

Section 232 tariffs were the main driver, escalating in stages — 25 per cent in March 2025 to 50 per cent in June 2025. Thereon, the base widened to 400 derivative codes in August 2025. Finally, as tariffs applied to the full customs value rather than just the metal content, with all exemptions eliminated between April and June 2026, Canada’s exports to the US recorded a steep 25.03 per cent fall.

Canada’s relationship with the US is still deteriorating rather than stabilising. The accelerating rate of decline, with tariffs still being broadened as of mid-2026, suggests H2 2026 could see a similar or steeper US drop.

Moreover, even counting every visible gain in the top-5 table, only about 42 per cent of the US volume lost was recovered by other importing nations.

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Netherlands: exports more than double

The Netherlands recorded the strongest sustained growth among the established destinations. Canadian aluminium exports more than doubled to 158,210 tonnes in H1 2026, up 111.9 per cent from 74,661 tonnes in H1 2025.

The increase follows a 15.11 per cent rise in H1 2025 from 64,819 tonnes in H1 2024. Overall, shipments to the Netherlands were approximately 144.08 per cent higher in H1 2026 than in H1 2024.

Mexico: sharp rebound in H1’26

Exports to Mexico also accelerated strongly, reaching 61,669 tonnes in H1 2026, up 126.07 per cent from 27,279 tonnes in H1 2025.

The latest increase represents a sharp reversal from the previous year’s performance, when Canadian aluminium exports to Mexico fell 8.52 per cent from 29,819 tonnes in H1 2024. Despite that dip, H1 2026 shipments were 106.81 per cent above the H1 2024 level.

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Italy holds steady, Greece enters H1’26

Exports to Italy also strengthened in H1 2026, increasing to 55,523 tonnes from 35,992 tonnes in H1 2025, when it first entered Canada’s top 5 destinations list. The increase of 19,531 tonnes represents a 54.3 per cent Y-o-Y rise.

Greece entered Canada’s top five aluminium export destinations in H1 2026, with exports reaching 10,009 tonnes. The Excel does not provide corresponding H1 2025 or H1 2024 figures for Greece, preventing a Y-o-Y comparison.

Poland, Malaysia and UK drop out

Poland, which ranked fifth in H1 2025 with 2,250 tonnes, dropped out of the top five in H1 2026. Meanwhile, Malaysia, which ranked fourth in H1 2024 with 5,876 tonnes, and the United Kingdom, which ranked fifth with 1,329 tonnes, also fell out of the leading group in subsequent years.

The destination mix has therefore changed noticeably over the three-year period.