Both LME and SHFE ended last week higher on falling dollar and positive fundamentals; expected to continue the trend today

The US dollar index fell on Friday as investors took on riskier assets on hopes for a trade deal between the US and China. LME base metals traded higher on Friday and aluminium advanced 0.4%. SHFE base metals also ticked up across the board on Friday night and aluminium advanced 0.8% and tin inched up 0.1%.

LME aluminium has been showing some upward movement since last week and the contract closed the day’s trading at US$ 1890.50 per tonne on Friday. After a lower open, the three-month LME aluminium climbed into positive territory to end at US$1,918 per tonne on Friday night. It is expected to trade at US$1,900-1,920 per tonne today.

As on February 22, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1890 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1890.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1911 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1911 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2042 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2047 per tonne.  

The LME aluminium opening stock decreased to 1239800 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 652950 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 586850 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1904 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2052 per tonne today from US$ 2023 per tonne on February 22. 

The SHFE 1904 contract shrugged off pressure from all moving averages, and climbed to a high of RMB 13,695 per tonne near closing, as longs entered. It settled at RMB 13,685 per tonne.  Expectations on higher downstream demand in March-May are supporting prices. The most liquid SHFE April contract opened higher and extended its gains to a high of RMB13,805 per tonne on Friday night. With shrinking trading volumes, the contract ended the session at RMB 13,730 per tonne. It is expected to trade at RMB 13,650-13,750 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 90-50 per tonne.

US President Donald Trump announced this morning that America will delay additional tariffs on Chinese goods that were initially slated for March 1. However, he did not mention a new deadline. The tariff moves will have a bearing on price movements this week.