China is moving to slow the rapid build-out of its metals industry, signalling that the next five-year plan will put tighter controls on new copper and alumina capacity. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said local governments must strengthen feasibility studies for major projects and ensure approvals match national industrial policy, warning against “irrational investment and disorderly expansion” between 2026 and 2030.
The commission framed copper and alumina as sectors tied not only to economic growth but also to military development, while stressing that future projects must reflect “differences in regional industrial bases, resource endowments and environmental capacity.” Beijing also wants consolidation, saying it will encourage mergers and restructuring among larger players to raise concentration and competitiveness, while continuing to support overseas mining investments as part of the upcoming plan.
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The shift comes as China, already the world’s biggest producer and consumer of both materials, has repeatedly cautioned about the risks of overcapacity. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association recently said plans for about 2 million tonnes of copper smelting capacity had already been suspended.
Production, meanwhile, remains strong. From January to November 2025, China produced 13.3 million tonnes of refined copper, up 9.8 per cent from a year earlier and on track for record output. Alumina production reached 84.7 million tonnes over the same period, also likely to set a new record.
Prices have echoed that momentum. Aluminium has climbed alongside copper in recent months, with SMM data showing December 2025 copper prices at USD 11,859.36 - 11,919.65 per tonne and aluminium at USD 2,764.51 - 2,769.53 per tonne.
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