Analysts predict a 54,500-tonne aluminium deficit in 2015

While the world is locked in debate about the state of aluminium globally, some 33 analysts believe that the average price of the metal will stay around $1,965 a tonne this year, 1.8% lower than the forecast made earlier but the downward revision is the smallest within the base metals this quarter.

The demand for the metal stays positive as the automotive and aerospace industries are still vying for the light metal and the output outside China is kept low pushing the market to an expected 54,500-tonne deficit this year as opposed to the 38,500 surplus predicted for 2014 in October polls.

An earlier estimation of 102,500-tonne deficit was made by analysts in a previous poll with a prediction of a higher 125,000 tonne deficit in 2016.

The supply is indeed seen to be tightening with the London Metal Exchange stockpiles falling fast with inventories registering a fall of stocks by a fourth since early 2014.

"We forecast $1,800 a tonne a year ago but can see growing aluminium demand. We hope new Chinese production is balanced by new demand and by the closure of higher cost and polluting production," SP Angel analysts said in a note to Reuters.