Aluminum costs seen rising more even after LME wins case

A courtroom victory allowing the London Metal Exchange to ease backlogs of deliveries of aluminum may do little to reduce the cost of the metal used in everything from beer cans to auto parts.

While yesterday’s appeal court ruling in London clears the way for the LME to impose new rules at its warehouses, rising demand for aluminum and output cuts by producers including Alcoa Inc. (AA) and United Co. Rusal will still boost costs, according to Harbor Intelligence and BMO Capital Markets. Rusal, which plans to appeal the ruling to the U.K. Supreme Court, yesterday cited a “substantial deficit” in the market.

Aluminum users including MillerCoors LLC argued last year that LME rules were helping to create artificial limits on warehouse supply. With shipment delays at some locations lasting more than a year, the metal surged into a bull market in July and reached an 18-month high a month later. To secure deliveries, buyers are paying record premiums that probably will remain near all-time highs for at least another three months, London-based researcher CRU said after the ruling.

“We think the premiums are going to go up for the remainder of the year and possibly early next year,” said Jorge Vazquez, an analyst at Harbor Intelligence in Austin, Texas. “More aluminum is being consumed than is produced. You need more metal.”

Aluminum for delivery in three months rallied as much as 18 percent this year, touching $2,119.50 a metric ton on the LME on Aug. 29. The surcharge to secure aluminum in Europe climbed 79 percent this year to a record $500 a ton, and the U.S. Midwest surcharge is up 87 percent at 22 cents a pound, according to Metal Bulletin data. The premium in Japan is also at a record, the company’s data show.

“For now, premiums continue to rise inexorably,” Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis SA in London, said by e-mail yesterday. “That could continue in the short-term.”

Demand for the metal will exceed output by 1.7 million tons this year, and the deficit in 2015 will reach 1.4 million tons, according to Standard Chartered Plc. Producers outside China have cut almost 3 million tons in capacity since late 2011, according to Jefferies Bache Ltd. Morgan Stanley yesterday raised its aluminum forecast by 8 percent for 2015 to $2,072.

“The consensus expectation now is for the all-in price to continue rising,” probably over the next 12 months, said Gayle Berry, a strategist at Jefferies Group in London.

The LME, which regulates a network of about 700 storage depots, wants to require warehouse companies with wait times longer than 50 days to deliver more metal than they take in. Moscow-based Rusal, the biggest producer, had sued to block the new rules. The U.K. Court of Appeals yesterday upheld a March ruling in favor of Rusal by a lower court judge.

The rule should come into effect in February, subject to a two-week consultation that started yesterday, the LME said after the appeal ruling. Wait times in Detroit and the Dutch port of Vlissingen, the biggest LME aluminum locations, stretch to as long as 21 months, according to Harbor.

The wait times for aluminum in Detroit lengthened by 51 days in September to 649 days, while Vlissingen wait times are 608 days, Harbor Intelligence estimates. The premiums should be lower without the queues, according to Commerzbank AG.

Backlogs have already disappeared at three warehouse locations this year. Inventories monitored by the LME dropped the past 41 days, the longest streak in 10 years. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., whose Metro International Trade Services LLC operates in Detroit, said in June it complied with the LME rule. Aluminum stockpiles at Vlissingen warehouses, most of which are operated by Glencore Plc’s Pacorini Metals, are down for a 70th session to the lowest since May 2013.

Prices are down 7.3 percent from this year’s peak, trading at $1,964.75 today on the LME.

“Market conditions today are fundamentally different than the conditions in existence at the time the rule change was first proposed,” Rusal said yesterday. “The LME’s rule change, if now adopted, is likely to have little effect on queues or premiums.”

Warehouses are no longer attracting the metal because the premium is so high, according to Harbor’s Vazquez. Goldman is seeking a buyer for Metro and JPMorgan Chase & Co. sold Henry Bath & Son Ltd., a Liverpool-based warehouse company, to Mercuria Energy Trading SA.

While premiums may decline as more metal is released into the market, prices of aluminum will keep going up, Jessica Fung, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said in a report yesterday.

“There is actual real demand for the metal,” Fung said. “LME prices are expected to continue to improve on the back of this demand.”