In line with the forecasts indicating tight supply and rising demand in Asian countries, Kedia Advisory reports aluminium prices have increased 0.99 per cent to INR 254.85 (USD 2.90).
The supply to the European factories continues to face supply constraints amid sanctions on major producer Russia, while the US enforces a 50 per cent aluminium import levy since June 4 to strengthen domestic smelting capacity and curb import reliance.
Although market speculation points to a potential halving of tariffs or a Canada exemption, physical aluminium price premiums continue to trade at elevated levels. The August commodity exchange of aluminium premium surged past 70 cents per pound (USD 1,543 per tonne), reflecting an almost 90 per cent increase since late May, with market sentiment further shaped by trends in China's aluminium production.
Aluminium production in June
As of June 2025, the aluminium production declined 3.23 per cent month-on-month, though operating capacity in July is expected to remain robust. The annual output in June rose 3.4 per cent to 3.81 million tonnes, with January to June production rising by 3.3 per cent year-on-year to 22.38 million tonnes.
Aluminium exports in July
Aluminium exports in July increased to 542,000 tonnes from 489,000 tonnes in June, reflecting steady international demand. In Japan, aluminium stocks across three major ports fell 0.4 per cent in July to 315,400 tonnes, indicating tightening supply in Asia.
Demand outlook
Demand expectations remain supported by industrial activity in the transport, packaging, power and construction sectors, while the outlook for Chinese fiscal support has moderated overly aggressive growth projections.
Technically, the market is in fresh buying mode, with open interest rising 1.78 per cent to 3,996 contracts alongside an INR 2.5 (USD 0.03) price gain. Key support levels are at INR 253.4 (USD 2.89), with a break lower exposing INR 251.7 (USD 2.87), while resistance stands at INR 256.1 (USD 2.92). This marks the move above this level could pave the way to INR 257.1 (USD 2.93).
Stock movement of three Indian aluminium giants
On August 13, 2025, Hindalco's stock price closed at INR 700.50 (USD 8.01), marking a 5.01 per cent increase from the previous day. Over the past week, the stock has risen by 0.57 per cent and over the past month, it has appreciated by 3.70 per cent.
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NALCO's stock price opened at INR 187.50 (USD 2.15) and closed at INR 189.94 (USD 2.18), reflecting a 1.83 per cent increase from the previous day. Over the past week, the stock has risen by approximately 1.83 per cent and over the past month, it has appreciated by about 1.83 per cent.
Vedanta's stock price also mirrored a similar trend, closing at INR 438.75 (USD 5.04), up by 1.27 per cent from the previous day. Over the past week, the stock has risen by approximately 1.27 per cent and over the past month, it has appreciated by about 1.27 per cent.
The strong stock performance of Hindalco, NALCO and Vedanta on August 13, 2025, signals positive market sentiment around India's aluminium sector. Hindalco's 5.01 per cent gain, along with steady rises in NALCO and Vedanta, suggests confidence in production, demand and profitability. This could translate into moderate upward pressure on Indian aluminium prices in the near term, reflecting expectations of stable or rising demand and healthy market fundamentals.
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