Alcoa in spotlight: Market outperformance driven by a cautious approach

Remaining in the spotlight among value-oriented metals stocks, the American Alcoa Corporation has been outperforming in the market. It has remained in focus, reinforced by high aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). However, a more cautious approach may prove worthwhile and take the firm a long way. 

Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain

On January 27, Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa from Overweight to Equal Weight. Meanwhile, its price target was raised from USD 52 to USD 64. Though Alcoa continues to benefit from aluminium pricing hikes, it was noted that its recent outperformance relative to peers resulted in a more balanced risk-reward profile.

Earlier, on January 23, Bank of America presented an Underperform rating and raised its price target on the stock to USD 38 from USD 33. The revision, following Alcoa’s Q4 2025 results, reflected estimates of updated earnings and mark-to-market pricing assumptions. 

Also read: Alcoa 2025 performance: Revenue jumped 15% in Q4, supported by record output at five aluminium smelters

On the same day, BMO Capital Markets reduced its price target from USD 67 to USD 65, reiterating a rating of Market Perform. While acknowledging a Q4 earnings beat, the firm flagged that the upside was primarily driven by a one-off CO₂ credit.

Looking ahead to 2026, BMO stated that aluminium production and shipment targets appear broadly in line with expectations, while alumina guidance remains mixed. 

Image source: https://www.alcoa.com/

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