Alcoa heads into Q4 2025 with earnings forecast 8.7% lower and revenues down 7% - can it deliver another beat?

Alcoa Corporation is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after market close on January 22. Estimates have moved higher, although year-on-year comparisons remain tough. Earnings are currently expected to come in at 95 cents per share on revenues of USD 3.24 billion, according to Zacks Consensus estimates. Forecasts have moved up sharply over the past two months, with earnings projections rising 18.8 per cent, even though the bottom line is still seen 8.7 per cent below last year’s level. Revenues are also expected to be lower, down 7 per cent from the same period a year ago.

That hasn’t stopped optimism from building. Alcoa has developed a habit of outperforming expectations. The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 39.3 per cent. The most recent quarter stood out in particular, with earnings exceeding forecasts by 86.7 per cent.

Operationally, Aluminium segment is expected to have done much of the heavy lifting. Demand from electrical and packaging customers in North America and Europe is likely to have remained supportive. At the same time, progress at the San Ciprián complex and the restart of the Spain smelter are expected to have contributed to higher sales. Consensus estimates place Aluminium segment revenues at USD 2.45 billion, up 29 per cent from the year-ago quarter.

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The Alumina segment, however, is expected to show a much weaker picture. Higher production at Australian refineries and growing interest in the Sustana product line offer some support, but these positives are expected to be overshadowed by lower shipments. Curtailment at the Kwinana refinery and reduced trading activity are seen as key factors. As a result, Alumina segment sales are projected at USD 1.32 billion, a 46 per cent drop from last year.

Also read: Alumina’s journey through 2025: A year known for ambition, friction and recalibration

Recent strategic moves form an important backdrop. Synergies from partnerships and acquisitions are expected to have supported results during the quarter. In March 2025, Alcoa entered into a joint venture with IGNIS EQT to resume and enhance production capacity at San Ciprián. Earlier, in August 2024, the company completed its acquisition of Alumina Limited, strengthening its position as a global pure-play upstream aluminium producer. Efforts to expand smelter and refinery capacity are also continuing.

Cost pressures continue to weigh on the outlook, with higher input costs lifting the cost of sales and Alcoa’s global operations leaving it vulnerable to geopolitical uncertainty and currency moves. Even so, as the earnings release nears, investors seem to be backing the company’s execution and momentum to offset these near-term challenges.

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