The United States should be living through a renaissance in aluminium. Data centers, electric vehicles and the wider clean-energy buildout are pulling unprecedented volumes of the metal into server racks, cooling systems, power grids and vehicle frames. Prices have strengthened, and shares of Alcoa and Century Aluminum have rebounded after last spring’s tariff shock. Yet the companies behind the country’s remaining smelters say the boom is slipping away from them just as demand surges.
The problem is electricity. Turning alumina into metal requires vast, steady power — roughly 14 megawatt-hours for every tonne of aluminium. A single modern smelter draws as much energy as a mid-sized American city. For decades, the economics worked only when smelters locked in long-term power at around USD 30 to USD 40 per megawatt-hour. That equation has collapsed. The explosion of AI infrastructure has tech giants paying more than USD 100 per megawatt-hour to secure guaranteed supply, far beyond what metal producers can absorb. Industry executives admit they simply cannot match Big Tech’s bidding power.
Domestic production slips into survival mode
This shift has left the United States with only four active smelting operations. Output last year barely reached 670,000 tonnes — less than one percent of global production — and nowhere near enough to meet domestic needs. The country now relies heavily on Canadian imports, while China and Indonesia expand aggressively with cheaper energy and looser constraints. No new US smelter has been built in nearly half a century, and the sector’s decline has become structural.
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Demand outpaces the country’s ability to supply
Ironically, the long-term fundamentals look stronger than ever. Automakers are substituting aluminium for steel as they electrify their fleets. Renewable power developers need the metal for turbines, solar frames and transmission hardware. And data center construction is rising so quickly that Bank of America expects US power demand to grow five to ten times faster over the coming decade. Yet Goldman Sachs forecasts that the wave of new global supply will push prices lower through 2026, compressing margins for the producers that remain.
Smelters search for lifelines
In this environment, companies are scrambling for stability. Century Aluminum has secured a multi-year power deal in South Carolina to keep one of its plants viable through 2031. Emirates Global Aluminium has announced plans for a new smelter in Oklahoma — an extraordinary move that would nearly double current US capacity if it proceeds. Alcoa, meanwhile, has hinted that selling assets directly to technology firms might make more economic sense than running power-hungry metal operations that no longer pencil out.
Industry leaders warn that without government action, the United States will struggle to rebuild a capability many now consider strategically important. The Aluminum Association estimates that reviving domestic smelting would require at least five large facilities, billions in capital and years of construction. Washington has already moved on tariffs, but producers argue that the deeper challenge lies in the power market, where the surge in AI-driven demand is leaving traditional industries priced out.
The result is a paradox: a country experiencing its highest aluminium demand in modern history, yet unable to supply the metal that underpins the technologies it wants to lead. As AI expands and electricity grows scarce, America’s aluminium sector finds itself fighting for relevance in the very boom that should have secured its future.
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