The total registered warrants exceed 200,000 tonnes; Bauxite and alumina prices may both fluctuate downward in the short term

Futures Market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at RMB 3,180 per tonne, with a high of RMB 3,184 per tonne and a low of RMB 3,142 per tonne, closing at RMB 3,152 per tonne, down RMB 17 per tonne or 0.55 per cent. Open interest stood at 214,000 lots.

Ore Market: As of March 11, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at USD 93.39 per tonne, down USD 1.35 per tonne from the previous trading day. This was mainly due to recent transactions in the Guinean bauxite market at USD 92-95 per tonne, with some buyers' target prices dropping to USD 80-85 per tonne and a few supplier offers below USD 90 per tonne. The SMM Imported Bauxite Index price was adjusted downward accordingly. The CIF average price of Guinean bauxite was USD 91 per tonne, down USD 2 per tonne from the previous trading day. The CIF average price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was USD 87 per tonne, down USD 4 per tonne, while the CIF average price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was USD 81 per tonne, down USD 5 per tonne.

Spot Alumina: On Wednesday, some spot alumina transactions were recorded, with shipments flowing to aluminium smelters in northwest China at an ex-factory price of 3,200 yuan/mt. In Shandong, 5,000 tonnes of spot alumina was transacted at RMB 3,260 per tonne.

Industry News:

1. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) reported an adjusted EBITDA of USD 2.5 billion in 2024, up 20 per cent Y-o-Y. Due to the Guinean export ban, annual bauxite production fell by 3.3 million tonnes to 10.8 million tonnes. Alumina production increased by 600,000 tonnes to 2.54 million tonnes, meeting approximately 49 per cent of demand. Liquid aluminium production rose by 30,000 tonnes to 2.69 million tonnes.

EGA accelerated its low-carbon aluminium and recycled aluminium initiatives, with CelestiAL solar aluminium production reaching 80,000 mt. The company also acquired Germany's Leichtmetall and the US's Spectro Alloys. Additionally, EGA is constructing the UAE's largest aluminium recycling plant, expected to commence operations in H1 2026. Due to the Guinean bauxite export suspension, EGA recorded an asset impairment of USD 488 million, with net profit falling to USD 715 million. Nevertheless, operating cash flow reached USD 2.3 billion, and the company distributed USD 1 billion in dividends for the second consecutive year.

2. The Trump administration officially imposed a 25 per cent tariff on global steel and aluminium imports today, affecting approximately £350 million of the UK's annual steel exports. UK Business Secretary Reynolds expressed disappointment but refrained from implementing countermeasures, continuing negotiations with the US. The EU announced retaliatory tariffs of EUR 26 billion on US goods starting April 1. The UK steel industry warned that the tariffs would impact jobs and harm the US defence and aerospace supply chains. The market reacted negatively to the tariff policy, with the US stock market value evaporating by over $4 trillion, the US dollar weakening, and recession risks increasing.
3. The White House confirmed that the Trump administration would maintain a 25 per cent tariff on Australian steel and aluminium products without exemptions. Prime Minister Albanese criticised the move as "unreasonable," while Australia continued efforts to reverse the decision. Trump's trade advisor Navarro accused Australia of abusing previous exemption policies, emphasising that the new tariff policy would have no exceptions. Australian steel and aluminium exports to the US account for less than 0.2% of total exports, with limited impact. The government stated it would not impose retaliatory tariffs to avoid driving up domestic prices.
4. A Canadian official revealed that Canada would announce retaliatory tariffs of C$29.8 billion on the US on Wednesday in response to President Trump's steel and aluminium tariffs.
5. The European Commission announced on March 12 that it would impose retaliatory tariffs worth EUR 26 billion on US goods starting next month in response to the 25 per cent tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, responsible for trade and economic security, issued a joint statement indicating that the measures would be implemented in two phases, with the first phase starting on April 1 and becoming fully effective by April 13.

The EU reiterated its openness to negotiations, emphasising that such tariffs amid global geopolitical and economic uncertainties would not serve common interests but rather increase economic burdens. Von der Leyen instructed Šefčovič to restart talks with the US to seek more effective solutions. Earlier, on February 10, President Trump officially implemented the 25 per cent tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium products, removing exemption quotas and policies for some trade partners. The statement also mentioned that Trump might consider imposing tariffs on other products, such as automobiles. Data showed that 25 per cent of Europe's steel exports go to the US market, and the EU's automotive industry could also face potential impacts.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on March 12, the SMM Alumina Index showed a premium of RMB 171 per tonne against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warrant Daily Report: On March 12, the total registered warrants for alumina increased by 8,426 tonnes from the previous trading day to 207,500 tonnes. In Shandong, the total registered warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 mt. In Henan, the total registered warrants increased by 3,304 tonnes to 28,200 tonnes. In Guangxi, the total registered warrants remained unchanged at 20,100 tonnes. In Gansu, the total registered warrants remained unchanged at 18,300 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered warrants increased by 5,122 tonnes to 136,400 tonnes.

Overseas Market: As of March 12, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 472 per tonne, with ocean freight rates at USD 20.05 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.26. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately RMB 4,118 per tonne at major domestic ports, RMB 776 per tonne higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remained closed. Based on SMM Shandong alumina prices, considering transportation and port miscellaneous fees, the domestic alumina export cost was approximately USD 480 per tonne, with the export window remaining closed.

Summary: Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continued, with sporadic spot transactions in the alumina spot market. Transaction prices saw further slight declines, with the centre around RMB 3,200-3,300 per tonne. The domestic alumina export window remained closed, and the total registered warrants in alumina futures delivery warehouses exceeded 200,000 tonnes. Subsequent alumina exports and warehouse transfers may struggle to provide sustained demand. On the fundamentals side, short-term alumina operating capacity is expected to fluctuate, with no significant decline anticipated in total operating capacity. The alumina fundamentals are expected to maintain a slight surplus, with spot alumina prices likely to fluctuate downward in the short term.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle in its original form without any modifications or edits to the information.