Futures market: On Friday last week, the night session of the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at RMB 3,015 per tonne, with a high of RMB 3,025 per tonne, a low of RMB 2,981 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,012 per tonne, down RMB 12 per tonne or 0.40 per cent, with an open interest of 272,000 lots.
Image for representational purposes only
Ore aspect: As of July 4, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at USD 74.3 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at USD 74 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at USD 70 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; and the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at USD 61 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Industry news:
1. Overseas alumina transactions: On July 5, 30,000 tonnes of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of USD 363 per tonne FOB Eastern Australia, with an August shipment date.
2. According to SMM, starting from July 5, a large alumina refinery in Shandong adjusted the purchase price of 32 per cent ionic membrane liquid caustic soda, increasing it by RMB 15 per tonne from the basis of RMB 735 per tonne; the ex-factory price under the two-invoice system was RMB 750 per tonne (converted to 100 per cent concentration, approximately RMB 2,344 per tonne).
Spot-futures price spread daily report: According to SMM data, on July 4, the SMM alumina index had a premium of RMB 75.75 per tonne against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant daily report: On July 4, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 21,300 tonnes, with 0 tonnes in Shandong, 0 tonnes in Henan, 3,902 tonnes in Guangxi, 0 tonnes in Gansu, and 17,400 tonnes in Xinjiang.
Overseas market: As of July 4, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 361.6 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 21.80 per tonne, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.18. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately RMB 3,192 per tonne at major domestic ports, which is RMB 76.23 per tonne higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed.
Summary:
Last week, the operating capacity of alumina decreased by 340,000 tonnes per annum to 88.63 million tonnes per annum. In the short term, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to remain high, with only a few manufacturers conducting routine maintenance. The supply in the spot market remains relatively loose, exerting downward pressure on the spot price of alumina.
But recently, alumina futures have surged, bringing the risk-free arbitrage window between futures and spot markets near opening. Futures and spot traders have shown relatively active inquiries, spot alumina supplies have tightened periodically, and suppliers have raised their quotes. In the short term, spot alumina prices may see a slight rebound. However, subsequent trends will still depend on changes in supply and demand fundamentals, futures price movements, and shifts in transfer to delivery warehouse demands.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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