Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy 2512 contract opened at RMB 20,460 per tonne overnight, hitting a high of RMB 20,515 per tonne and a low of RMB 20,435 per tonne, before closing at RMB 20,435 per tonne, down RMB 25 per tonne, or 0.12 per cent, from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,513 lots, and open interest stood at 12,713 lots, with the decrease mainly driven by bulls. In the short term, the futures market is consolidating, while the medium-term moving average system remains bullish, indicating a phase of market watchfulness.
Spot-Futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on October 21, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2512) at 10:15 expanded to RMB 660 per tonne.
Warrant report: SHFE data showed that on October 21, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 45,863 mt, an increase of 852 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,244 mt, down 59 mt; Guangdong recorded 12,366 mt, up 334 mt; Jiangsu stood at 8,590 mt, unchanged; Zhejiang reached 15,649 mt, up 577 mt; Chongqing was 5,014 mt, unchanged; and Sichuan remained at 0 mt.
Industry trends: A recent white paper from the Aluminium Association in the US has reignited attention to the increasingly strategic role of aluminium scrap in the country. Data indicate that the US is both a major producer and consumer of aluminium scrap, yet it continues to export significant volumes overseas.
By proposing targeted export bans on used beverage cans (UBCs) and scrap suitable for direct furnace feed, the association aims to retain these valuable resources within the domestic ecosystem. These measures are intended to strengthen the US aluminium industrial base, promote circular production, and reduce reliance on imported primary aluminium. However, they could disrupt global aluminium scrap flows—particularly impacting Asian countries such as India, Malaysia, and China, which rely on US scrap imports for secondary aluminium production. The international market for high-grade aluminium scrap is expected to tighten further, potentially leading to price volatility, intensified competition for cleaner materials, and accelerated efforts by importing countries to upgrade their recycling infrastructure.
Aluminium scrap: On Tuesday, spot primary aluminium prices edged up slightly from the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at RMB 20,970 per tonne, while aluminium scrap market prices remained largely flat. Baled UBC scrap was quoted in the range of RMB 15,900–16,500 per tonne(tax excluded), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted at RMB 17,300–17,800 per tonne(tax excluded).
Prices for baled UBC, shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminium scrap were flat m-o-m. The aluminium scrap market chose to wait and see the aluminium price trend this week, with offers holding steady across regions. In Hubei, procurement challenges for aluminium tensile scrap became prominent, with shredded aluminium tensile scrap and mechanical casting aluminium scrap prices rising by RMB 100 per tonne consecutively within a single day. The aluminium scrap market is expected to hold up well this week, with the mainstream price range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) hovering around RMB 17,500-18,000 per tonne.
Regarding silicon metal, spot silicon metal prices remained stagnant at low levels. Yesterday, SMM's oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was quoted at RMB 9,300-9,400 per tonne, flat from the previous day, with some spot and futures-linked sources trading at lows around RMB 9,200 per tonne. The futures market remained weak, with the lowest point at RMB 8,400 per tonne yesterday, closing at RMB 8,505 per tonne, down RMB 60 per tonne from the previous day. Downstream buyers' sentiment to drive down prices maintained low-price transactions in the market.
Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers held steady at $2,550-2,580 per tonne, while domestic spot prices remained at RMB 20,300-20,500 per tonne. The immediate loss on imports narrowed to around RMB 200 per tonne. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand were at 83 baht per kg, excluding tax.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totalled 48,978 mt on October 21, down 78 mt from the previous day and down 148 mt from Tuesday last week (October 14).
Summary: aluminium prices partially recovered yesterday compared to the previous day, with the SMM ADC12 price rising slightly by RMB 50 per ton to RMB 21,100 per tonne. The tight supply of aluminium scrap is unlikely to ease in the short term, with cost support remaining solid. Some enterprises experienced declines in operating rates due to raw material shortages or losses, while finished product inventories at plants remained low, leading to firms or actively following higher offers.
Although demand has not shown significant improvement compared to September, overall resilience persists, providing support to prices. However, high social inventory and warrant pressure may limit upside room, while attention should be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with a focus on raw material circulation, demand performance, and inventory changes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
Responses
