Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminium alloy futures contract opened at RMB 19,755 per tonne, hitting a bottom of RMB 19,750 per tonne, reaching a peak of RMB 19,810 per tonne, and finally closing at RMB 19,785 per tonne, up RMB 35 per tonne or 0.18 per cent from the previous trading day. Trading volume stood at 734 lots, with open interest at 8,517 lots, primarily driven by an increase in long positions.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on July 7, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy futures contract (AD2511) at 10:15 a.m. narrowed to RMB 260 per tonne.
Aluminium Scrap Market: Yesterday, the spot price of primary aluminium fell by RMB 130 per tonne from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot closing at RMB 20,640 per tonne. The overall aluminium scrap market prices corrected downward. Amid the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilisation enterprises faced weak order releases, with procurement primarily driven by immediate needs. Yesterday, the centralised quoted price for baled UBC aluminium scrap ranged from RMB 15,200 to 15,700 per tonne (tax-exclusive), while the quoted price for shredded aluminium tense scrap ranged from RMB 15,800 to 17,300 per tonne (tax-exclusive). By product, baled UBC aluminium scrap prices fell by RMB 100 per tonne M-o-M, following the decline in aluminium prices. Regionally, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and other regions closely followed aluminium price movements, with price adjustments ranging from RMB 100 to 150 per tonne. In contrast, Jiangxi, Foshan, Hunan, and other regions lagged behind aluminium price movements, with quoted prices remaining unchanged from the previous trading day.
Overseas Market: The CIF import price of ADC12 remained at USD 2,450-$2,480 per tonne, with the import spot price hovering around RMB 19,200 per tonne, resulting in an immediate import loss of approximately RMB 800 per tonne. In Thailand, the local tax-exclusive quoted price for ADC12 was concentrated at 82-83 Thai baht/kg.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on July 7, the combined daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 22,718 tonnes, up 729 tonnes from the previous trading day and 2,957 tonnes from the previous Monday.
Summary: On Monday, aluminium prices extended their decline, with SMM ADC12 prices falling by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 20,000 per tonne. After July, factors such as the high-temperature off-season and elevated aluminium prices continued to impact downstream orders, prompting some downstream enterprises to initiate production cuts. Despite active inquiries from futures-to-spot traders and an increase in trading volume for delivery brands, the sluggish end-use consumption market remained a key obstacle to price increases. However, due to factors such as reduced imports and a decline in dismantling volumes caused by high temperatures, the shortage of secondary aluminium raw materials is expected to persist, continuing to support ADC12 costs. Faced with the dual pressures of raw material supply deficits and weak market demand, some secondary aluminium manufacturers have temporarily halted furnace operations for maintenance or reduced their operating rates. Overall, the strong cost support and weak demand continue to engage in a tug-of-war, with ADC12 prices expected to maintain a weak and narrowly fluctuating pattern throughout July.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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