Futures: On Friday night, the most-traded cast aluminium alloy 2601 contract opened at RMB 20,615 per tonne, fluctuated between RMB 20,535-20,865 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 20,715 per tonne, up RMB 120 per tonne or 0.58 per cent from the previous trading day. In the KDJ indicator, the J-line crossed above the K per D lines, showing a short-term rebound signal; however, the indicator values were in the neutral range, with moderate momentum support. Trading volume was 19,578, and open interest was 5,334, both declining simultaneously, indicating cautious market sentiment.
Spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on November 28, the SMM ADC12 spot price theoretically traded at a premium of RMB 585 per tonne to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2601) at 10:15.
Warrant report: SHFE data showed that on November 28, the total registered warrants for cast aluminium alloy were 64,075 tonnes, an increase of 696 tonnes from the previous trading day. By region: total registered warrants in Shanghai were 4,757 tonne, unchanged from the previous day; Guangdong had 20,273 tonne, unchanged; Jiangsu had 10,969 tonne, unchanged; Zhejiang had 21,648 tonne, up 696 tonne; Chongqing had 6,308 tonne, unchanged; Sichuan had 120 tonne, unchanged.
Aluminium scrap: On Friday, spot primary aluminium prices saw a slight correction from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminium closing at RMB 21,450 per tonne, while the aluminium scrap market was largely stable. Entering late November, downstream demand for aluminium scrap showed significant divergence: demand for scrap used in cast aluminium alloys remained robust with a slight increase, providing more support for consumption, and some scrap-consuming enterprises in Shandong reported that raw material procurement was characterized by "prices without market availability"; meanwhile, demand for scrap used in wrought aluminium alloys began to show signs of weakening, yet tight market supply remained the main theme, keeping procurement prices high. Baled UBC was quoted in a range of RMB 16,275-16,575 per tonne (ex-tax), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted in a range of RMB 18,000-18,650 per tonne (ex-tax).
Silicon metal: (1) Prices: Recently, spot silicon metal prices were largely stable with minor movements. Oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at RMB 9,500-9,600 per tonne, and #421 silicon was at RMB 9,700-9,900 per tonne. On Friday, the most-traded SI contract closed at RMB 9,130 per tonne, up RMB 15 per tonne from the previous day. Downstream users made purchases as needed, and silicon prices continued to move sideways. (2) Production: In November 2025, domestic silicon metal production was 401,700 tonnes, down 11.2 per cent M-o-M and down 0.7 per cent YoY. From January to November 2025, cumulative silicon metal production was 3.8716 million tonnes, down 15.2 per cent YoY. Operating rates diverged across regions in December, with silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan further cutting production while northern regions saw minor increases, resulting in an estimated slight M-o-M decline in overall output.
Overseas market: The current overseas ADC12 quotation range remained at USD 2,600–2,630 per tonne, with import losses steady around RMB 500 per tonne, keeping the import window closed.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totalled 49,719 tonnes on December 1, down 66 tonnes from the previous trading day and lower WoW from Monday (November
Summary: Last Friday, the SMM A00 aluminium spot price edged down RMB 10 per tonne to RMB 21,450 per tonne, while ADC12 held steady at RMB 21,350 per tonne. Recent aluminium price fluctuations narrowed, with aluminium scrap prices adjusting slightly and auxiliary materials like silicon remaining stable, leading to limited marginal changes in overall costs. However, the core issue of tight aluminium scrap supply saw no substantial improvement. Demand side, as prices stabilised, downstream procurement sentiment improved. Additionally, automakers' year-end push for annual targets kept secondary aluminium enterprises' automotive orders robust, effectively supporting demand resilience. Overall, the front-load orders driven by year-end demand and policy changes, combined with high raw material costs, are expected to keep secondary aluminium alloy prices fluctuating range-bound manner in the short term, with price resilience remaining.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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