Futures market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at RMB 3,149 per tonne, with a high of RMB 3,202 per tonne, a low of RMB 3,118 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,128 per tonne, up RMB 33 per tonne or 1.07 per cent. Open interest stood at 347,000 lots.
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Spot alumina: On Monday, inquiries revealed that some alumina was procured through tenders by aluminium plants in Xinjiang, with transaction prices ranging around RMB 3,400-3,450 per tonne delivered to the plant. In Shanxi, 10,000 tonnes of alumina was traded at RMB 3,150 per tonne, while in Henan, 2,000 tonnes was traded at RMB 3,000 per tonne.
Ore: As of May 19, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at USD 70.74 per tonne, up USD 0.33 per tonne from the previous trading day. This was mainly due to supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, making it unlikely for low-price offers below USD 70 per tonne to emerge in the short term. Some market offers increased significantly compared to the previous period, driving a rebound in the SMM imported bauxite index.
The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at USD 70 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was also reported at USD 70 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at USD 65 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Industry news:
Spot-futures price spread daily report: According to SMM data, on May 19, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of RMB 103.35 per tonne to the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant daily report: On May 19, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,805 tonnes from the previous trading day to 195,300 tonnes. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 601 tonnes from the previous trading day.
In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 3,001 tonnes from the previous trading day. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 12,600 tonnes from the previous trading day. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 6,306 tonnes from the previous trading day. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,805 tonnes from the previous trading day to 173,200 tonnes.
Overseas market: As of May 19, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 370 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 21.50 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.23. This price translates to approximately RMB 3,279 per tonne at domestic major ports, which is RMB 291 per tonne higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed.
Summary: Last week, maintenance and production cuts were concentrated among alumina enterprises in south China, with operating capacity decreasing by 2.9 million tonnes per year on a Q-o-Q basis, leading to a further tightening of spot cargo availability. Additionally, alumina enterprises have been facing continuous losses in recent months, with a strong intention to refuse to budge on prices. Coupled with maintenance and production cuts, the tightening of spot cargo availability has led to a significant rebound in spot prices.
Last Friday, due to the revocation of mining rights for some enterprises in Guinea, some currently operating enterprises received notices of suspension. This week, some miners declared force majeure to shipping companies. The specific impact of this incident on the supply of bauxite from Guinea remains to be assessed.
In the short term, it may provide sentiment-based support for bauxite prices, thereby offering cost support for alumina. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor changes in the operating capacity of alumina refineries, as well as the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea at the raw material end and the dynamics of relevant enterprises.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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