According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium production in September 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.14 per cent Y-o-Y but decreased by 3.18 per cent M-o-M. As September entered the traditional peak season, the proportion of liquid aluminium at domestic aluminium smelters rebounded slightly, with the industry's liquid aluminium ratio rising by 1.2 percentage points M-o-M to 76.3 per cent. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in September decreased by 8.67 per cent Y-o-Y and decreased by 7.94 per cent M-o-M to around 857,000 tonnes.
Capacity Changes: By the end of September, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminium capacity was approximately 45.84 million tonnes (SMM made revisions after taking into account capacity replacement situations and old plant demolitions, eliminating some double-counted capacity). China's operating aluminium capacity was approximately 44.06 million tonnes. Domestic operating aluminium capacity saw a slight increase M-o-M in September, and the industry operating rate also increased slightly M-o-M, primarily due to: the Phase II replacement projects in Shandong and Yunnan successively starting pots and commissioning; and previous technological transformation projects in Guangxi successively starting pots and resuming production.
Production Forecast: Entering October 2025, the commissioning of replacement projects and production resumptions from technological transformation projects are expected to further increase aluminum production. Daily average aluminium production is expected to achieve growth. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, some northern enterprises currently report increased plans for direct sales of liquid aluminum, while individual southern enterprises said downstream aluminium billet enterprises plan to purchase less liquid aluminium. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to rebound by 1 percentage point to 77.3 per cent. Subsequent attention should be paid to the actual demand situation during the peak season, and the shutdown plans for old capacity and commissioning plans for new capacity in replacement projects.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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