According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium production in August 2025 (31 days) increased 1.22 per cent Y-o-Y and 0.33 per cent M-o-M. August marked the transition between off-peak and peak seasons, with some regions reporting early signs of demand recovery. The proportion of liquid aluminium at domestic smelters rebounded MoM, rising 1.3 percentage points to 75.07 per cent this month. Based on SMM's liquid aluminium ratio data, domestic aluminium ingot casting volume decreased 10.38 per cent Y-o-Y and 4.68 per cent M-o-M to approximately 930,600 tonnes.
Capacity changes: By the end of August, SMM estimated domestic existing aluminium capacity at around 45.79 million tonnes (SMM adjusted the figure in late April by eliminating double calculations after taking into account capacity replacement and old plant dismantling), with operating capacity at about 44 million tonnes. Domestic operating aluminium capacity edged up M-o-M in August, accompanied by a slight M-o-M increase in operating rates, primarily due to:
1) The commissioning of Phase II capacity replacement projects in Shandong-Yunnan;
2) Partial commissioning of earlier replacement projects in Guizhou;
3) Gradual pot restarts at technological transformation projects in Guangxi;
4) Limited production resumptions at idle capacity in Yunnan.
Production forecast: Entering September 2025, domestic operating aluminium capacity is expected to rise further marginally as replacement projects gradually commence operations, with pots that were started earlier achieving output. Daily average ingot production will grow. Regarding liquid aluminium ratios, with September approaching the traditional peak season, some companies reported plans to increase direct liquid aluminium sales in September, likely pushing the ratio slightly higher. Subsequent attention should focus on traditional seasonal demand realisation, commissioning pace of replacement projects, and liquid aluminium ratio trends.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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