According to SMM data, in July 2025 (31 days), China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 5.40 per cent M-o-M and 6.65 per cent Y-o-Y. As of the end of July, the existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity in China was approximately 110.32 million tonnes, with the actual operating capacity increasing by 2.00 per cent M-o-M and an operating rate of 81.6 per cent.
Bolstered by policy news such as "anti-rat race competition" and "capacity reduction" in the macro context, alumina futures strengthened. The most-traded contract reached a peak of RMB 3,577 per tonne within the month, opening the arbitrage window between futures and spot. Spot traders actively inquired and purchased, leading to a tightening of spot supply. Holders refused to budge on prices, and spot alumina prices followed suit. Alumina refinery profitability improved again during the month. Except for a few routine maintenance activities, no news of production cuts or maintenance was heard. Operating capacity increased by 1.77 million tonne M-o-M.
By region:
In July, alumina capacity in south China saw both increases and decreases. A few alumina refineries conducted routine maintenance, but the impact on alumina production was relatively small. Additionally, some alumina refineries began reducing their operating capacity from June and did not recover in July, leading to a slight decrease in production. Apart from this, due to firm alumina prices and moderate profitability, the operating capacity of a few alumina refineries increased. Overall, the operating capacity in south China decreased by 20,000 tonnes M-o-M.
In July, driven by profitability, the operating capacity of alumina in north China increased significantly, up 1.78 million tonnes M-o-M.
Forecast for next month: As we enter August, spot alumina prices are currently fluctuating at highs, and alumina refineries are enjoying moderate profitability. There is no strong intention for production cuts or maintenance, with only a few companies expected to carry out routine maintenance, which will have a limited impact on production. In August, the operating capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide is expected to increase slightly, reaching around 90.56 million tonnes per year.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core information.
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