SMM data showed China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2025 (31 days) increased 1.15 per cent M-o-M and 7.16 per cent Y-o-Y. As of August month-end, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity stood at around 110.32 million tonnes, with operating capacity up 1.15 per cent M-o-M and operating rate at 82.6 per cent.
August saw both increases and decreases in alumina operating capacity, with a net increase of approximately 1.04 million tonnes. On one hand, the average spot alumina price remained moderate, and daily cost-profit models showed theoretical industry profits exceeding RMB 300 per tonne, maintaining strong production incentives. Some plants raised operating capacity, while newly commissioned projects further ramped up output. On the other hand, minor production cuts occurred at individual plants due to raw material issues. Northern facilities reduced calcination loads for the September 3 military parade, and southern plants conducted routine maintenance, collectively tempering output growth.
By region:
August witnessed severe regional divergence in spot alumina prices, with south China prices remaining relatively firm. This was partly due to ongoing maintenance at alumina facilities in the south, preventing sustained high operating rates. Southern annualized operating capacity fell by around 270,000 tonnes M-o-M, while northern capacity increased by approximately 1.3 million tonnes.
September outlook: Spot alumina prices remain in the doldrums, but most producers still operate above breakeven levels with limited output reduction plans. Only routine maintenance extending into early September and calcination load reductions for the military parade are confirmed. Metallurgical alumina operating capacity is expected to increase slightly to around 91.35 million tonnes per year in September.
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Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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