According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in September 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.52 per cent M-o-M and 10 per cent Y-o-Y. By the end of September, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was about 110.32 million tonnes, and the actual operating capacity increased by 1.54 per cent M-o-M, with an operating rate of 80.23 per cent.
Daily average alumina production achieved a slight increase, but the growth rate was suppressed, mainly affected by the following factors: at the beginning of the month, due to the "September 3rd military parade" event, some alumina refineries in the north periodically reduced the load of roasting furnaces during the parade period; simultaneously, some enterprises in the south conducted planned routine maintenance, which also reduced the roasting load; additionally, falling alumina prices narrowed corporate profit margins, leading to low enthusiasm for production increases.
By region
In September, there was a significant price spread between the north and south in the domestic alumina market. Early in the month, routine maintenance at enterprises in south China led to a slight tightening of supply, which supported prices and kept them firm. By mid-to-late month, as supply recovered, supplemented by imported alumina and the "north-to-south cargo flow," sellers in the south showed slightly less willingness to hold firm on prices. Under pressure from lower-priced supplies from the north and imports, spot alumina prices in the south declined. However, profitability of alumina capacity in the south remained favorable, and no production cuts by enterprises have been reported so far.
In contrast, offers in the northern market remained under pressure throughout the month, maintaining a downward trend. Entering October, the monthly average price is expected to fall below the cash cost of high-cost enterprises, and some companies are likely to face losses and implement production cuts.
Outlook for next month
The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in October. After entering October, the monthly average price is projected to come under pressure and decline, gradually approaching the cost line. Some high-cost enterprises will face losses and may proactively implement production cuts for maintenance. As supply contracts, the current surplus situation is expected to ease somewhat. However, since supply-demand adjustments take time, prices are likely to remain in the doldrums overall. Operating alumina capacity is expected to decrease in October, with industry-wide operating capacity projected at around 88.98 million tonnes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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