In 2026, the release of production from already commissioned projects and the commissioning of new projects are expected to further increase the supply of imported bauxite in China. China's bauxite supply is expected to shift to a surplus, with prices fluctuating around USD 70 per tonne. On the cost side: Under pessimistic expectations of an increased supply of imported bauxite, bauxite may present a tight balance in 2025.
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Guinea's bauxite supply accounts for nearly half of China's total bauxite supply, but Guinea's bauxite supply is affected by numerous uncertainties, such as the rainy season, strikes, and government decrees. Under pessimistic expectations, the increase in Guinea's bauxite shipments is expected to be around 25 million wet metric tonnes (WMT), with an overall bauxite surplus of about 5.4 million tonnes for the year.
Considering the stocking demand for new projects, bauxite may present a tight balance in 2025, gradually shifting to a surplus in 2026. In this scenario, bauxite prices are expected to remain relatively firm, with Guinea's bauxite prices expected to drop to a minimum of USD 75-80 per tonne in 2025, and further decline to around USD 70 per tonne in 2026.
Under a surplus scenario, China's alumina prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost. In a surplus scenario, alumina is unlikely to see significant profits, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost. If Guinea's bauxite prices drop to USD 70-80 per tonne, the average cost of alumina is expected to be RMB 2,990-3,136 per tonne. Supported by the cost line, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between RMB 2,600-3,400 per tonne in 2025-2026, and between RMB 2,900-3,300 per tonne during relatively stable periods. Stimulated by profits, overseas alumina operating capacity is expected to increase.
The cash cost of alumina production in major alumina export regions is around USD 300 per tonne, and the rise in overseas alumina prices also stimulates the increase in overseas alumina production capacity and the commissioning of new capacity. With supply growth surpassing demand growth, the overseas alumina market is expected to remain in surplus. As supply conditions recover, overseas alumina prices have rapidly pulled back.
The FOB price of alumina in Western Australia has dropped from USD 810 per tonne to USD 330 per tonne, a decrease of 59.25 per cent. In 2025, overseas new alumina capacity of 4 million tonnes is expected to be commissioned, presenting a surplus scenario. Supported by the cost bottom, overseas alumina prices may fluctuate between USD 250-400 per tonne. In 2026, both supply and demand are expected to increase, with the overseas alumina surplus expected to expand by 710,000 tonnes. In 2026, overseas alumina production is expected to increase by 2.79 million tonnes, and overseas aluminium production is expected to increase by 1.08 million tonnes.
With an alumina consumption rate of 1.925, overseas alumina demand is expected to expand by 2.08 million tonnes, resulting in an alumina surplus expansion of about 710,000 tonnes to 2.51 million tonnes. In 2026, overseas alumina is expected to remain under pressure, with prices also fluctuating around USD 250-400 per tonne. With the expected expansion of the surplus, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate at lows. As supply conditions recover, overseas alumina prices have rapidly pulled back.
The FOB price of alumina in Western Australia has dropped from USD 810 per tonne to USD 330 per tonne, a decrease of 59.25 per cent. In 2025, overseas new alumina capacity of 4 million tonnes is expected to be commissioned, presenting a surplus scenario. Supported by the cost bottom, overseas alumina prices may fluctuate between USD 250-400 per tonne.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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