Futures: During the night session on March 27, the SHFE aluminium 2605 contract opened at RMB 23,815 per tonne, hit an intraday high of RMB 24,120 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,815 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 24,085 per tonne, up RMB 150 per tonne from the previous close, or 0.63. Technical analysis showed that the short-term moving averages (SMA5: 23,950.63; SMA10: 23,925.45) had turned upward, with prices holding firmly above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, confirming a short-term bullish trend.

The medium-term moving averages (SMA20: 24,093.00; SMA40: 24,253.74; SMA60: 24,242.57) remained in a downward alignment, indicating that the medium-term trend had not yet reversed, with clear moving average resistance in the 24,100-24,250 range above. On the 4-hour K-line chart, MACD4 turned into red bars (DIFF = -211.72, DEA = -215, STICK = 6.56), with DIFF crossing above DEA to form a golden cross, suggesting that bearish momentum had been exhausted and bullish momentum was beginning to build. In terms of open interest, night session open interest was about 260,000 lots, an increase of 2,484 lots from the previous session. On March 27, LME aluminium opened at USD3,262.0 per tonne, reached a high of USD3,303.0 per tonne, a low of USD3,229.0 per tonne, and closed at USD3,284.5 per tonne, up 0.92 from the previous day. Trading volume was 18,211 lots, down 6,699 lots, and open interest was 688,000 lots, up 7,296 lots.

Macro front: Recently, the People's Bank of China convened the 2026 Financial Stability Work Conference. The meeting required that in 2026, financial stability work should uphold political guidance, strengthen theoretical grounding, establish and practice a correct view of political performance, deeply integrate Party building with business operations, and ensure a high-standard start and high-quality advancement of financial stability work during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It also called for continuously improving the system for preventing and defusing systemic financial risks, further deepening and solidifying technology empowerment, strengthening financial risk monitoring, assessment, early warning, and early correction, and continuing to curb incremental risks.

Adhering to market-oriented and law-based principles, it urged active and prudent resolution of financial risks in key areas and orderly reduction of existing risks. (Bullish ★) Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's consumer survey, said that the US consumer sentiment index fell 6 in March to its lowest level since December 2025. Consumer confidence declined across age groups and political affiliations. Middle- and upper-income consumers and those with stock wealth were affected by rising gasoline prices and turbulent financial markets following the Iran conflict, with their confidence falling particularly sharply. Overall, the short-term economic outlook fell 14, expectations for personal finances over the next year fell 10, while the decline in long-term expectations was relatively mild. (Bearish ★)

Fundamentals: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said on Saturday that its Taweelah site in the Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad) industrial park in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi suffered severe damage in missile and drone attacks launched by Iran. The company said it was still assessing the extent of the damage, and multiple employees were injured in the attack. The statement showed that Tavira aluminium smelter's primary aluminium production was 1.6 million tonnes in 2025. On the inventory side, aluminium ingot inventory in China's major consumption regions continued to build up on Monday this week, up 24,000 tonnes from last Thursday and up 36,000 tonnes from last Monday.

Primary aluminium market: SHFE aluminium 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, while its centre was higher than the previous day. Affected by the rise in futures, shipment sentiment last Friday improved from last Thursday, but some sellers still held back cargoes, with a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Mainstream transaction prices last Friday were concentrated at a premium of RMB 10-20 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium 04 contract. Last Friday, the shipment sentiment index in east China was 2.92, up 0.29 w-o-w; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.22, down 0.17 w-o-w. Aluminium prices fluctuated continuously over the past few days last week, with bullish and bearish sentiment intertwined in the central China market. Although downstream processing enterprises approached the weekend, stockpiling demand fell short of expectations, and traders remained cautious in purchases, with no large-scale procurement or stockpiling. After 9:30 a.m. last Friday, market trading turned increasingly sluggish, with the market generally tending to widen discounts for transactions. Suppliers showed limited willingness to hold prices firm, and final transaction prices were around parity to a discount of RMB 20  against the central China price. Last Friday, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.65, up 0.01 w-o-w; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.38, down 0.03 w-o-w.

Secondary aluminium raw material: Last Friday, spot primary aluminium pulled back RMB 250 per tonne from the previous trading day, and the aluminium scrap market generally followed lower. Amid wild swings in aluminium prices at the time, aluminium scrap yards saw a stronger willingness to hold back cargoes, highlighting the resilience of aluminium scrap prices. On the other hand, stricter regulatory oversight under the "reverse invoicing" policy sharply increased tax compliance costs in the aluminium scrap recycling segment. In some regions, as operating procedures had yet to be fully streamlined, the supply of actually compliant, invoiced, and available cargoes remained tight, and supply-side elasticity was significantly weakened by policy frictions. In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, as of March 26, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was RMB 2,693 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tensile scrap was RMB 1,403 per tonne.

The aluminium scrap market is expected to maintain its high-level consolidation pace this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) likely to hover at RMB 19,800-20,500 per tonne (excl. tax). Policy constraints on the supply side are unlikely to ease in the short term, and tight compliant cargo supply, coupled with yards holding back cargoes, will continue to underpin prices. Demand side, peak-season recovery fell short of expectations, downstream players showed strong wait-and-see sentiment amid high prices, and lacked momentum for large-scale restocking, with just-in-time procurement still dominant. Primary aluminium will remain subject to fluctuations driven by geopolitical and macro factors, and the overall tug-of-war between sellers and buyers will persist, warranting caution over the risk of wild swings in prices.

Secondary aluminium alloy: Futures side, last Friday, the most-traded aluminium alloy 2605 contract opened at RMB 22,925 per tonne and quickly moved lower, hitting an intraday low of RMB 22,825 per tonne. It then stabilised and rebounded, gradually fluctuating higher, with the intraday high reaching RMB 23,025 per tonne. As of the midday close, it closed at RMB 22,935 per tonne, down RMB 5 per tonne from the previous close, or 0.02%. Spot side, last Friday, the ADC12 market posted a slight follow-up gain driven by the rebound in aluminium prices. Some enterprises raised quotes by RMB 100–200 per tonne due to higher costs, while others chose to keep prices temporarily stable and wait on the sidelines because of their earlier price adjustment pace or weak demand. In terms of transactions, downstream procurement remained mainly demand-based, with no significant improvement in market trading sentiment and insufficient demand-driven momentum. ADC12 prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the impact of developments in the Middle East situation on aluminium prices and the pace of downstream consumption recovery.

Aluminium market summary: At present, macro geopolitical risks in the global aluminium market continue to escalate, with risk premiums staying elevated and becoming the core variable dominating market sentiment. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the market heard that an aluminium plant in Bahrain in the Middle East further cut production, involving 320,000 tonnes of capacity, while the Taweelah smelter of the UAE’s EGA was attacked on March 28 and suffered severe damage, making the global supply contraction more pronounced. On the demand side, downstream operating rates rebounded further, but the weekly proportion of liquid aluminium was relatively stable. Entering April, as the peak season deepens, the proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to rebound further. On the inventory side, aluminium prices pulled back from earlier levels last week, but wait-and-see sentiment in the market remained strong.

Downstream players mainly made just-in-time procurement on dips, and aluminium ingot social inventory failed to enter the destocking stage. From late March to early April, attention should be paid to whether aluminium ingot inventory can smoothly enter a destocking cycle under high aluminium prices. Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the core factor affecting the global aluminium market. Successive production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminium plants are expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminium prices in and outside China. Coupled with support from expectations of gradually released peak-season demand in China, aluminium prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.