Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy 2601 contract opened at RMB 21,070 per tonne overnight, climbed to a high of RMB 21,175 per tonne, fell to a low of RMB 20,730 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 21,130 per tonne, down RMB 60 per tonne or 0.28 per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 15,905, and open interest was 17,484. The K-value was 61.25, the D-value was 64.93, and the J-value was 53.9, within the neutral range of 50-80. With the J-value below the K/D values, there is short-term pullback pressure. After the previous surge to 21,440 and subsequent pullback, the contract is currently within the weekly oscillation range. Support can be watched near 20,700, with resistance corresponding to the previous high of 21,440.
Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on December 11, the SMM ADC12 spot price had a theoretical premium of RMB 570 per tonne over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2601) at 10:15.
Warrant Daily: SHFE data showed that on December 11, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 68,995 tonnes, an increase of 362 tonnes from the previous trading day. The breakdown by region was: Shanghai (total registered volume 4,757 tonnes, unchanged), Guangdong (21,500 tonnes, down 29 tonnes), Jiangsu (11,988 tonnes, unchanged), Zhejiang (24,022 tonnes, up 391 tonnes), Chongqing (6,308 tonnes, unchanged), and Sichuan (420 tonnes, unchanged).
Aluminium Scrap: Spot primary aluminium prices rose on Thursday compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at RMB 21,890 per tonne. The aluminium scrap market followed the increase collectively. Baled UBC was quoted in the range of RMB 16,350-16,850 per tonne (ex-tax), and shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted in the range of RMB 18,200-18,750 per tonne (ex-tax). Prices for baled UBC, clean tapping aluminium wire, mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint, mechanical casting aluminium scrap, scrap motorcycle wheel, and mixed aluminium tense scrap were raised by RMB 100 per tonne M-o-M. The price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap closed at RMB 1,946 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and bare bright aluminium wire in Jiangsu was RMB 900.6 per tonne. The overall tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues. It is necessary to closely track fluctuations in primary aluminium, environmental protection policies, and downstream procurement pace, while remaining vigilant about the risk of a pullback from high levels.
Silicon Metal: Prices: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at RMB 9,100-9,300 per tonne, flat from the previous day. This week, the price center for silicon metal was on the weaker side, with varying sales performance among different suppliers. After the futures decline, trading volume from traders and downstream buy orders increased significantly, and spot-futures arbitrage merchants saw smooth sales. Most silicon enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach, either temporarily suspending quotes or maintaining original prices, showing a generally strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Production: Over the past week, adjustments to the silicon metal production schedule showed minor fluctuations, and the total weekly supply saw limited change WoW. Xinjiang issued an announcement regarding a regional heavy pollution weather warning last night. Based on predictions from the autonomous region's meteorological and environmental monitoring departments and expert consultations, the office of the autonomous region's heavy pollution weather emergency command decided to activate an orange warning for heavy pollution weather in the "Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi" region starting at 12:00 on December 13. This may impact production at silicon enterprises in the region, and changes in operating rates in Xinjiang should be monitored. Inventory: Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions on December 11 was 561,000 tonnes, an increase of 3,000 tonnes W-o-W. This included 136,000 tonnes in general social warehouses, up 5,000 mt WoW, and 425,000 tonnes in social delivery warehouses (including portions not registered as warrants and spot inventory), down 2,000 tonnes W-o-W.
Overseas market: Current ADC12 offers in the Southeast Asian market held steady at USD 2,620–2,640 per tonne. Due to the rapid rebound in domestic prices, immediate import losses narrowed to around RMB 200 per tonne.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the weekly social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in four major consumption areas—Foshan, Ningbo, Wuxi, and Shanghai—totaled 54,700 tonnes on December 11, down 600 tonnes from the previous day.
Summary: Spot side, yesterday's SMM A00 aluminium spot price rose by RMB 120 per tonnes to RMB 21,890 per tonne, while the ADC12 price rebounded by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 21,600 per tonne, recovering the previous day's losses. This week, aluminium prices in China showed a rebound for the first time, and the secondary aluminium market responded actively, with manufacturers generally raising offers by RMB 100–200 per tonne. Raw material side, although aluminium scrap prices followed the aluminium price correction, leading to a slight weakening in cost support, they remained at a relatively high level amid tight supply. Demand side, performance showed marginal weakening, coupled with the impact of sharp aluminium price fluctuations, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness turned cautious, and market trading activity was moderate. Comprehensive analysis of the supply-demand pattern and cost factors suggests that ADC12 aluminium alloy prices are expected to continue a sideways movement in the short term.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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