Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy ad2512 contract opened at RMB 20,475 per tonne overnight, hit a high of RMB 20,505 per tonne, and finally closed at the lowest of RMB 20,405 per tonne, up RMB 80 per tonne or 0.39per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,681 lots, and open interest was 13,116 lots, with the increase mainly driven by bulls. Technically, the contract is in a short-term bullish trend, with prices moving upward along the moving average, supported by both volume-price relationships and indicators. Resistance at RMB 20,800 per tonne needs to be watched.
Basis daily: According to SMM data, on October 13, the spot price of SMM ADC12 showed a theoretical premium of RMB 625 per tonne against the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2512) at 10:15, widening from the previous day.
Warrant daily: On October 13, the total registered warrant volume for cast aluminium alloy was 41,937 tonne, an increase of 2,503 tonne from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,303 tonne, unchanged; Guangdong, 10,036 tonne, up 908 tonne; Jiangsu, 8,802 tonne, up 91 tonne; Zhejiang, 13,782 tonne, up 1,204 tonne; Chongqing, 5,014 tonne, up 300 tonne; Sichuan, 0 tonne, unchanged.
Aluminium scrap: On Monday, spot primary aluminium prices fell compared to the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminium closing at RMB 20,800 per tonne, and aluminium scrap market prices followed the decline overall. After Trump threatened to impose 100per cent tariffs on China last Friday, SHFE aluminium broke support and fell during the night session. On October 11, suppliers and scrap utilisation enterprises lowered aluminium scrap offers by up to RMB 200 per tonne following the futures decline.
Prices in some regions, such as Hubei, Anhui, and Hunan, rebounded after the market opened on Monday, the 13th. For the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, the spread for mechanical casting aluminium scrap in Shanghai narrowed by RMB 180 per tonne WoW to RMB 2,062 per tonne, while the spread for mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan narrowed by RMB 72 per tonne WoW to RMB 2,100 per tonne.
SMM comprehensively judges that the overall aluminium scrap market prices in October will still hold up well, with the mainstream price range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) expected to hover around RMB 17,500-18,000 per tonne. The market needs to focus on the sustainability of downstream demand after the holiday and further guidance from primary aluminium price trends.
Silicon metal: On October 13, SMM prices in east China were non-oxygen blown #553 at RMB 9,200-9,400 per tonne; oxygen-blown #553 at RMB 9,400-9,500 per tonne; #521 at RMB 9,500-9,700 per tonne; #441 at RMB 9,600-9,700 per tonne; #421 at RMB 9,600-9,800 per tonne; #421 for silicone use at RMB 9,800-10,300 per tonne; #3303 at RMB 10,500-10,600 per tonne. Prices of silicon in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, Shanghai, Tianjin, Northwest China, and Xinjiang also remained stable.
Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers held steady at USD2,550–2,580per tonne, while domestic spot prices fell by RMB 200 per tonne to RMB 20,200–20,400 per tonne, with the immediate import loss widening to around RMB 400 per tonne. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand were at 83 baht per kg on an untaxed basis.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totalled 49,157 tonnes on October 13, down 703 tonnes from the previous trading day.
Summary: On Monday, the SMM A00 aluminium price fell by RMB 180 per tonne from the previous trading day to RMB 20,800 per tonne, while the SMM ADC12 price dropped by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 21,000 per tonne. Affected by escalating tariff conflicts, aluminium prices experienced a significant correction, leading to a decline in aluminium scrap prices and a slight easing on the cost side.
Most secondary aluminium market participants lowered prices by RMB 100 per tonne, though some enterprises chose to hold steady and wait due to optimistic expectations for the future or the impact of low raw material and finished product inventories. Overall, the raw material side continues to face an undersupply situation, and enterprises still face significant cost pressure; meanwhile, demand remains stable with positive trends, providing support for prices. However, continuously rising social inventories are exerting some downward pressure on prices, and ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Subsequent attention should focus on raw material supply conditions, changes in social inventory, and the pace of post-holiday demand recovery.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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