Futures: There was no night session on the evening of February 13, 2026. On the last trading day before the holiday (February 13), the aluminium alloy 2603 contract closed at RMB 22,040 per tonne, down RMB 100 or 0.45 per cent from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 5,427 lots, and open interest was 11,955 lots. Trading volume increased slightly, but open interest decreased, indicating that some bullish funds exited the market and wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. The K-line ran below the D-line, and the J-line retreated from highs to around 40, showing insufficient short-term momentum and the possibility of further weakening.

Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on February 13, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of RMB 1,575 per tonne to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2604) at 10:15.

Warrants Daily: SHFE data showed that on February 13, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 66,366 tonne, a decrease of 272 tonne from the previous trading day. The breakdown by region was: Shanghai (total registered volume 6,490 tonne, unchanged from the previous day); Guangdong (23,181 tonne, unchanged); Jiangsu (8,531 tonne, down 150 tonne); Zhejiang (22,127 tonne, down 122 tonne); Chongqing (4,684 tonne, unchanged); Sichuan (1,353 tonne, unchanged).

Aluminium Scrap: On the last trading day before the holiday, the spot price of primary aluminium fell compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at RMB 23,160 per tonne. The aluminium scrap market followed the decline overall. Baled UBC was quoted in the range of RMB 16,750-17,200 per tonne (tax excluded), and shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted in the range of RMB 18,900-19,600 per tonne (tax excluded). Aluminium scrap prices are expected to hover at highs this week, as downstream demand is unlikely to recover quickly. The mainstream trading range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) is still expected to be around RMB 19,000-19,800 per tonne (tax excluded). Scrap yards and some scrap utilisation enterprises had not yet ended their holidays, constraining the recovery of new scrap. Tight supply release, coupled with high aluminium prices, provided bottom support for aluminium scrap prices. However, downstream demand fell compared to January, and market transactions are expected to remain sluggish. In the short term, the supply-demand standoff with both sides weak is likely to persist, with transactions mainly driven by rigid restocking needs. Close attention should be paid to the pace of resumption at downstream processing enterprises after the holiday, and be alert to the possibility that post-holiday resumption expectations could reignite market sentiment, pushing aluminium prices higher and keeping the aluminium scrap trading atmosphere persistently sluggish.

Silicon Metal: On February 13, SMM prices in east China were: non-oxygen blown #553 at RMB 9,100-9,300 per tonne; oxygen-blown #553 at RMB 9,200-9,400 per tonne; #521 at RMB 9,300-9,500 per tonne; #441 at RMB 9,300-9,600 per tonne; #421 at RMB 9,500-9,800 per tonne; #421 for silicone use at RMB 9,800-10,200 per tonne; #3303 at RMB 10,200-10,400 per tonne. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Northwest China, Shanghai, Xinjiang, and Sichuan remained stable.

Summary: After the Chinese New Year holiday, the secondary aluminium alloy market transitioned from the pre-holiday state of "weak supply and demand with stable prices" to a phase of balancing the pace of production resumptions and demand recovery. As the shutdown period for secondary aluminium plants this year was slightly longer Y-o-Y, most enterprises resumed operations between the eighth and fifteenth days of the first lunar month. Supply release in the first week after the holiday was expected to be relatively slow, providing temporary support for prices. However, demand-side recovery was more likely to be gradual; before end-user orders showed significant growth, downstream procurement remained cautious and need-based. Cost side, continuous attention should be paid to price fluctuations of aluminium scrap and auxiliary materials such as copper and silicon, while primary aluminium trends remained a key variable influencing market sentiment and the price center. Overall, ADC12 prices were likely to continue their pre-holiday sideways movement in the initial post-holiday period. Subsequent direction depended on supply-demand matching after full production resumption and primary aluminium price performance. If periodic restocking coincided with strong primary aluminium prices, there was room for price recovery; otherwise, prices might face slight pressure but were expected to remain largely range-bound.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.