Futures: Overnight, the cast aluminium alloy 2605 contract price first fell and then rose, overall showing a fluctuating upward pattern. After the opening, the price quickly moved lower and touched an intraday low of RMB 23,320 per tonne, then gradually stabilised and rebounded, fluctuating upward to a high of RMB 23,610 per tonne. It pulled back slightly late in the session and finally closed at RMB 23,585 per tonne, down RMB 45 per tonne from the previous trading day, or 0.19 per tonne. Trading volume shrank significantly from the previous trading day, while open interest also declined, indicating strong wait-and-see sentiment among funds. Technically, the price rebounded to near the yellow line of the DKX indicator, while the KD indicator rose rapidly after a golden cross at low levels. Short-term rebound momentum was released, but the overall market remained in a sideways movement pattern.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on March 30, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the 10:15 closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2605) narrowed to RMB 1,150 per tonne.

Warrant daily: SHFE data showed that as of March 30, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 35,207 tonnes, down 1,477 tonnes from the previous trading day. Among them, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 2,152  tonne, down 120  tonne from the previous trading day; Guangdong 14,961  tonne, down 787  tonne; Jiangsu 2,946  tonne, down 120  tonne; Zhejiang 10,277  tonne, down 450  tonne; Chongqing 3,634  tonne, up 0  tonne; and Sichuan 1,237  tonne, up 0  tonne.

Industry updates: SMM data showed that the PMI of the secondary aluminium industry in March rebounded sharply by 40.9 percentage points M-o-M to 68.8 per tonne, returning above the 50 mark. In March, enterprises basically resumed normal production, and downstream demand gradually recovered. Both production and new orders of secondary aluminium enterprises in March increased significantly from February. Looking ahead to April, secondary aluminium orders are expected to weaken, and the industry PMI may pull back below the 50 mark.

Aluminium scrap: The US-Iran war disrupted aluminium fundamentals, and fund sentiment drove primary aluminium spot prices to surge by RMB 720 per tonne yesterday from the previous trading day, with the aluminium scrap market generally following higher activity. The aluminium scrap market is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation pace this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) running around RMB 19,800-20,500 per tonne (excluding tax). Policy constraints on the supply side are unlikely to ease in the short term, and tight compliant cargoes, coupled with yards holding back cargoes, will continue to underpin prices. Demand side, the peak-season recovery fell short of expectations, downstream players showed strong wait-and-see sentiment amid high prices, lacked momentum for large-scale restocking, and just-in-time procurement remained the mainstream. Primary aluminium still faced fluctuations under the influence of geopolitical and macro factors, and the overall tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continued, warranting caution over the risk of wild swings in prices.

Silicon metal: On March 30, according to SMM, east China non-oxygen blown #553 was unchanged from last Friday; oxygen-blown #553 was unchanged from last Friday; #521 was unchanged from last Friday; #441 was unchanged from last Friday; #421 was unchanged from last Friday; #421 for silicone was unchanged from last Friday; and #3303 was unchanged from last Friday. Individual silicon prices in Tianjin fell. Silicon prices in Huangpu Port, Shanghai, the northwest, Xinjiang, Kunming, and Sichuan held steady.

Markets outside China: Affected by the attack and damage to EGA's Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE, expectations for overseas supply tightened again. LME aluminium opened sharply higher, driving overseas ADC12 quotes up quickly to USD 3,320-3,400 per tonne. Immediate import losses widened to above RMB 2,000 per tonne, and the theoretical import window remained closed.

Summary: On Monday, ADC12 prices held up well, with mainstream producers generally raising quotes by RMB 300-400 per tonne, mainly driven by stronger primary aluminium prices and rapidly rising aluminium scrap costs. Enterprises mostly increased quotes in line with the trend, and cost support was significant. However, demand remained relatively mediocre, downstream procurement was still cautious, inquiries and actual transactions were fairly average, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes was limited. The market as a whole showed a divergence of "clear cost-driven gains but weak demand follow-through." In the short term, if aluminium prices remain high, ADC12 prices may still find support, but upside room will be constrained by the pace of recovery in end-use demand.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.