On June 5, 2025, the ALuminium Forum of Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2025, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., with the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs as the government supporter, and co-organised by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), Jakarta Futures Exchange and Sxcoal, successfully concluded in Jakarta, Indonesia!
The event brought together industry leaders, experts and corporate representatives from around the world to delve into key topics including global bauxite and alumina market analysis and outlook, aluminium supply chain and market dynamics, aluminium industry development in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, prospects for Indonesia's bauxite sector and global aluminium market trends and prospects.
Melati Sarnita, Business Development Director at PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Indonesia's state-owned aluminium company), stated that Indonesia's aluminium consumption is projected to surge by approximately 600 per cent over the next 30 years. Demand will particularly rise in sectors like EVs and renewable energy (e.g., PV solar, where deploying 1 MW requires about 21 tonnes of aluminium). From 2018 to 2024, Indonesia relied heavily on aluminium imports, with imports expected to account for 54 per cent of supply by 2024, while domestic production contributed only 46 per cent. Thus, accelerating downstream bauxite processing and advancing aluminium industrialisation are critical to meet growing domestic demand. The target is to achieve an annual production of 900,000 tonnes of aluminium by 2030, supported by a refinery (SGAR Phase II) with an annual capacity of 2 million tonnes of alumina.
Duncan Hobbs, Research Director at Concord Resources, noted that the pace of global market recovery and fluctuations in the Chinese market will significantly impact the aluminium sector. Industrial production remains the primary driver of aluminium consumption, with YoY changes explaining over 75 per cent of annual consumption variations. Industry performance, especially in transport and construction, highly aluminium-dependent sectors, also plays a key role. Global industrial output is expected to return to its normal trend in 2025 after subdued performance during 2023–2024. While accelerated production may boost aluminium consumption, downward risks persist under current policy conditions.
Cathy Liu, SMM's Global Aluminium Market Analyst based in London, forecasted a significant surplus of around 12 million tonnes in the global bauxite market in 2025, maintaining downward pressure on prices. The tightening of policies in Guinea is unlikely to immediately cause a supply deficit, but it will pose long-term cost risks. In the alumina market, China's alumina capacity has surged and it is expected that there will be a supply surplus of 4.11 million tonnes in 2025, exerting downward pressure on domestic prices. It is projected that global bauxite production will increase significantly by 2025, with a production surplus of approximately 12 million tonnes, shifting the market conditions from undersupply to oversupply.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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