Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminium alloy futures contract opened at the lowest point of RMB 20,125 per tonne. The futures market fluctuated upward, reaching a high of RMB 20,250 per tonne, a new record high since its listing, and finally closed at RMB 20,215 per tonne, up RMB 50 per tonne or 0.25 per cent from the previous trading day. Trading volume totalled 1,613 lots and open interest stood at 9,750 lots, with bears reducing their positions.
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Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on July 21, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy futures contract (AD2511) at 10:15 a.m. narrowed to RMB 80 per tonne.
Industry Dynamics: (1) According to customs data, in June 2025, China's imports of unwrought aluminium alloy were 77,400 tonnes, down 12.3 per cent YoY and 20.2 per cent MoM. From January to June 2025, cumulative imports were 542,300 tonnes, down 11.6 per cent YoY. In June 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminium alloy were 25,800 tonnes, up 23.8 per cent YoY and 6.6 per cent MoM. From January to June 2025, cumulative exports were 120,300 tonnes, up 3.1per cent YoY.
(2) According to customs data, in June 2025, China's domestic aluminium scrap imports were approximately 155,600 tonnes, down about 2.6 per cent YoY. In terms of import source countries, Thailand, the UK, Japan, the US and other countries and regions were the main sources of domestic aluminium scrap imports in June, with Thailand accounting for 25.9 per cent of the total domestic imports.
Aluminium Scrap: On Monday, the spot price of primary aluminium rose by RMB 190 per tonne from the previous trading day. SMM A00 spot aluminium closed at RMB 20,890 per tonne and the overall aluminium scrap market followed the rise. Baled UBC aluminium scrap was concentratedly quoted at RMB 15,450-15,950 per tonne (tax not included) and shredded aluminium tense scrap was concentratedly quoted at RMB 16,000-17,500 per tonne (tax not included).
It is expected that the aluminium scrap market this week may fluctuate at highs along with aluminium prices, with overall prices more likely to rise than fall. Undersupply of raw materials will provide medium and long-term support for aluminium scrap prices, but weak demand in the off-season will also continue to constrain upside room. Shredded aluminium tense scrap is strongly supported by tight supply, with price resilience remaining, and is expected to fluctuate within RMB 15,600-17,200 per tonne. Baled UBC aluminium scrap is constrained by weak demand in the off-season, with continued downward pressure, and its price trend will closely follow aluminium price fluctuations, with an average price range of RMB 15,300-15,800 per tonne.
Overseas Market: The CIF import price of ADC12 slightly remained at USD 2,460-2,490 per tonne, the import spot price rose to around RMB 19,500 per tonne and the immediate import loss narrowed slightly. The local ADC12 price in Thailand, excluding tax, was concentrated at THB 82-83 per kg.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on July 21, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totalled 28,677 tonnes, up 257 tonnes from the previous trading day and 1,997 tonnes from the previous Monday.
Summary: On Monday, the SMM ADC12 price rose by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 20,200 per tonne. The continuous uptrend in aluminium prices drove widespread increases in aluminium scrap prices, further pushing up ADC12 costs, with strong market willingness to adjust prices, generally raising them by RMB 100-200 per tonne.
However, actual consumption showed mediocre performance, with limited transactions. Overall, the cost support from aluminium scrap for secondary aluminium prices strengthened in the short term, but weak demand coupled with high social inventory will constrain the upside room for ADC12 and other secondary aluminium alloy prices, which are expected to maintain a narrow range, with strong performance in the near term.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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