Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy 2512 contract opened at the day's high of RMB 20,420 per tonne overnight, hit bottom at RMB 20,315 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 20,375 per tonne, up RMB 25 per tonne or 0.12 per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,650 lots, and open interest was 12,871 lots, with bears mainly reducing positions. In the short term, futures are consolidating; the medium-term moving average system is bullish, but prices are within a range. It is necessary to monitor the breakout at the 20,400-20,420 resistance level. A firm hold above could open upside room; a pullback below 20,350 warrants caution for short-term adjustment risks.
Spot-futures price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on October 20, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2512) closing price at 10:15 was RMB 625 per tonne.
Warrant daily report: On October 15, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 45,011 mt, a decrease of 152 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,303 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Guangdong was 12,032 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Jiangsu was 8,590 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Zhejiang was 1,072 mt, a decrease of 152 mt from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Chongqing was 5,014 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Sichuan was 0 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Industry dynamics: (1) aluminium Alloy Imports and Exports: Customs data showed that unwrought aluminium alloy imports in September 2025 were 82,200 mt, down 13.2 per cent y-o-y but up 15.7 per cent M-o-M. Cumulative imports for January-September 2025 totaled 764,700 mt, down 14.1 per cent y-o-y. Unwrought aluminium alloy exports in September 2025 were 23,500 mt, up 2.1 per cent y-o-y but down 19.2 per cent M-o-M. Cumulative exports for January-September 2025 totaled 197,800 mt, up 9.6 per cent y-o-y.
(2) aluminium Scrap Imports: The latest customs data showed that domestic aluminium scrap imports in September 2025 were approximately 155,400 mt, up about 17.7 per cent y-o-y. In terms of import source countries, the main sources for domestic aluminium scrap imports in September were Thailand, the UK, Japan, the US, and other countries and regions, with Thailand accounting for 25.5 per cent of total domestic imports.
aluminium scrap side: Spot primary aluminium prices dropped back slightly on Monday compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at RMB 20,930 per tonne. aluminium scrap market prices were generally flat. Baled UBC was quoted in the range of RMB15,900-16,500 per tonne (tax excluded), and shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted in the range of RMB 17,300-17,800 per tonne (tax excluded).
Baled UBC, shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminium scrap were flat M-o-M. Procurement difficulties for aluminium tense scrap-based materials in Hubei became more pronounced, with prices for shredded aluminium tense scrap and mechanical casting aluminium scrap rising by RMB 100 per tonne in a single day. The aluminium scrap market was expected to hold up well this week, with the mainstream price range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) hovering around RMB 17,500-18,000 per tonne.
Regarding silicon metal: Customs data showed that silicon metal exports in September 2025 stood at 70,200 mt, down 8 per cent MoM but up 8 per cent y-o-y. Cumulative silicon metal exports from January to September 2025 reached 561,600 mt, up 2 per cent y-o-y. On the import side, China's silicon metal imports in September 2025 were 1,900 mt. Cumulative imports from January to September 2025 totaled 8,600 mt, down 64 per cent y-o-y.
Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers held steady at USD 2,550–2,580 per tonne, while domestic spot prices remained firm at RMB 20,300–20,500 per tonne. The immediate import loss narrowed to around RMB 200 per tonne. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand (excluding tax) were at 83 baht per kg.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 48,978 mt on October 21, down 78 mt from the previous trading day and down 148 mt from the previous Tuesday (October 14).
Summary: aluminium prices edged down slightly yesterday compared to the previous day, while the SMM ADC12 price held steady at RMB 21,050 per tonne, lacking momentum for adjustment. The tight supply of aluminium scrap, which is unlikely to change in the short term, continues to provide solid cost support. Some enterprises faced losses due to material shortages or cost-price inversions, leading to a decline in operating rates.
Meanwhile, demand resilience and low plant inventories supported prices, but caution is needed regarding the suppression of upside room from high social inventories and warrant pressure. Attention should also be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well in the near term, with a focus on raw material circulation, the pace of demand recovery, and inventory changes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data
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