Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy ad2512 contract opened at the day's high of RMB 20,735 per tonne overnight, hit a low of RMB 20,580 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,680 per tonne, down RMB 35 per tonne or 0.17 per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 989 lots, and open interest was 6,094 lots, with the decrease mainly driven by bulls. The short-term trend remains bullish (price above short-term moving averages), but overbought signals and long position reductions suggest a potential short-term correction, with support at MA5 (20,648) needing attention.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on October 27, the SMM ADC12 spot price showed a theoretical premium of RMB 555 per tonne over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2512) at 10:15.
Aluminium scrap side: On Monday, spot primary aluminium prices continued to rise from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 aluminium closing at RMB 21,160 per tonne, while aluminium scrap market prices held flat overall. Baled UBC was mainly offered at RMB 16,000-16,500 per tonne (ex-tax), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was mainly offered at RMB 17,300-17,800 per tonne (ex-tax).
Baled UBC rose 50 per tonne w-o-w, while shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminium scrap held flat w-o-w. Recently, reports from Henan and Hubei indicated efforts to drive down prices for wrought aluminium alloy scrap from the extrusion sector, with price reductions ranging from 300-800 yuan. SMM attributes this to the approaching end of the peak season, rapid order decline, and insufficient demand. Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap: The price difference between A00 aluminium and mechanical casting aluminium scrap in Shanghai widened by 50 per tonne w-o-w to 2,422 per tonne; the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan widened by 50 per tonne w-o-w to 2,311 per tonne. The aluminium scrap market is expected to hold up well this week.
Silicon metal side: On October 27, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 silicon metal in east China was at 9,200-9,400 per tonne; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,300-9,400 per tonne; #521 at 9,500-9,600 per tonne; #441 at 9,500-9,700 per tonne; #421 at 9,500-9,800 per tonne; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 per tonne; #3303 at 10,400-10,600 per tonne. Individual silicon metal prices in Tianjin increased. Prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, Northwest China, Shanghai, and Xinjiang held steady.
Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers held steady at USD 2,550-2,580per tonne, while domestic spot prices increased by 100 per tonne to 20,400-20,600 per tonne, resulting in an immediate import loss of around 200 per tonne. Local ex-tax ADC12 offers in Thailand were around 83 baht per kg.
Inventory side: According to SMM statistics, on October 28, the total daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 48,275 mt, down 100 mt from the previous trading day and down 703 mt from last Tuesday (October 21).
Summary: The tight supply-demand balance for aluminium scrap persists in the current market, with procurement costs rising further. Enterprises are generally purchasing at high prices to ensure order fulfilment, while low-priced sources are scarce. Due to factors such as insufficient raw material circulation, high-priced raw materials eroding profits, and unclear policies in regions like Jiangxi and Anhui, industry supply has contracted. Overall demand remains resilient, coupled with low finished product inventories at manufacturers and ongoing pressure for order delivery, providing some support to market prices. In the short term, supported by rigid cost pressures and a tight supply-demand balance, ADC12 aluminium alloy ingot prices are expected to hold up well. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material supply, consumption performance, and inventory changes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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