Futures: On the night session of November 24, the SHFE aluminium 2601 contract opened at RMB 21,415 per tonne. After a slight dip below RMB 21,385 per tonne, prices quickly rebounded, hitting a high of RMB 21,430 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 21,405 per tonne, up 0.12 per cent. In terms of fluctuation pace, night session prices did not fall below the daytime session low of RMB 21,295 per tonne, indicating strong support at that level. Meanwhile, the daytime session high of RMB 21,455 per tonne formed a short-term resistance, which the night session failed to break through, showing rangebound fluctuations. LME aluminium opened at USD 2,802.5 per tonne, reached an intraday high of USD 2,817.5 per tonne, fell to a low of USD 2,796 per tonne, and closed at USD 2,813 per tonne, up 0.18 per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 14,800 lots, and open interest increased by 830 lots to 695,000 lots.
Macro front: The central bank announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct a RMB 1,000 billion MLF operation on November 25, 2025, with a 1-year term, using a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding method. (Bullish ★) On the evening of November 24, President Xi Jinping spoke with US President Trump by phone. Xi elaborated on China's principled stance on the Taiwan issue, emphasising that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the post-war international order. China and the US once fought side by side against fascism and militarism, and should now jointly safeguard the outcomes of WWII victory. Trump stated that China played a significant role in the WWII victory and that the US understands the importance of the Taiwan issue to China. (Neutral) Fed Governor Waller said he advocates for an interest rate cut in December and indicated that September employment data might be revised downward. (Bullish ★)
Fundamentals: Inventory-wise, according to SMM statistics, the combined inventory of aluminium ingots in three domestic regions totalled 461,000 tonnes on November 24, up 3,500 tonnes from the previous period. Meanwhile, the combined inventory of aluminium billets in two regions was 90,000 tonnes, destocking 3,000 tonnes from the previous period.
Primary aluminium market: The SHFE aluminium 12 contract mainly fluctuated during the early session, with the price centre hovering around RMB 21,360 per tonne. In East China, aluminium ingot destocking continued over the weekend. Holders quoted at parity to a premium of RMB 10 per tonne against the SMM average price around the opening, but amid the off-season atmosphere, downstream purchasers preferred discounts. Actual transactions were mainly at parity against the SMM average price, with subsequent transactions slightly weakening, and sporadic deals occurred at discounts of RMB 10~5 per tonne. This Monday, the East China market selling sentiment index was 3.09, down 0.02 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.06, down 0.04 WoW. SMM A00 aluminium was quoted at RMB 21,360 per tonne, down RMB 20 per tonne from the previous trading day, at parity against the December contract, unchanged from the previous trading day. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish on Monday this week. Before the market opened, large holders sold off substantial volumes, but downstream buying sentiment was weak, and traders faced poor sales. Prices continued to decline from parity against the central China price before opening to a discount of RMB 20 against the central China price, with trading volume showing no improvement. The selling sentiment index in the central China market on Monday this week was 2.97, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.92, down 0.02 WoW. SMM central China price closed at RMB 21,260 per tonne, down RMB 30 per tonne from the previous trading day, at a discount of RMB 100 per tonne against the December contract, down RMB 10 per tonne from the previous trading day. The Henan-Shanghai price spread was -RMB 100 per tonne, down RMB 10 per tonne from the previous trading day.
Recycled aluminium raw materials: Spot primary aluminium prices fell on Monday this week compared to the previous trading day, with SMM spot A00 aluminium closing at RMB 21,360 per tonne, while the aluminium scrap market overall held steady.
Entering late November, downstream demand for aluminium scrap showed significant divergence: demand for scrap used in cast aluminium alloys remained robust with a slight increase, providing more support for consumption, while demand for scrap used in wrought aluminium alloys began to show signs of weakening. However, tight market supply remained the dominant theme, keeping procurement prices high.
On Monday this week, baled UBC scrap was mainly quoted in the range of RMB 16,000-16,500 per tonne (tax excluded), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was mainly quoted in the range of RMB 18,000-18,500 per tonne (tax excluded). Clean tapping aluminium wire, shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hubs, mechanical casting aluminium scrap, and aluminium shavings held steady WoW, while baled UBC in South China rose RMB 100 per tonne WoW. In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was RMB 2,501 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and bare bright aluminium wire in Jiangsu was RMB 881.3 per tonne.
The aluminium scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week, with the mainstream price range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) likely fluctuating between RMB 17,800-18,600 per tonne. Supply side, the tight supply-demand pattern in the aluminium scrap market is difficult to change in the short term, but as primary aluminium prices fluctuate at highs, fear of high prices may intensify, and the willingness to follow price increases in some regions may weaken. Overall, the market will continue the high-level tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, and it is recommended to closely track primary aluminium price trends and procurement strategy adjustments of downstream enterprises.
Secondary aluminium alloy: The most-traded aluminium alloy futures contract 2601 opened at RMB 20,690 per tonne on Monday this week, fluctuated upward in the morning session to hit the intraday high of RMB 20,690 per tonne, then dropped back slightly, and closed the morning session at RMB 20,535 per tonne, up RMB 75 per tonne or 0.36 per cent from the previous trading day, with the futures movement mainly driven by short covering.
The current market maintains a consolidation pattern, with the previous upward trend unchanged. In the short term, focus on the support level at RMB 20,535 per tonne and the resistance level at RMB 20,690 per tonne, waiting for further rebound signals. On Monday, the domestic aluminium market showed a narrow-range adjustment trend.
The SMM A00 aluminium spot price was quoted at RMB 21,360 per tonne, down RMB 20 per tonne from the previous trading day. In the secondary aluminium market, ADC12 prices held steady at RMB 21,350 per tonne, while most aluminium scrap prices on the raw material side remained flat, with stable trading activity in the market. In the short term, ADC12 prices have limited downside room supported by costs and supply, but the decline in aluminium prices and cautious demand are suppressing rebound momentum. ADC12 is expected to move sideways in the range of RMB 21,200–21,500 per tonne in the near term. On the import side, overseas ADC12 quotations remained flat in the range of USD 2,600–2,630 per tonne, with immediate import losses widening to above RMB 500 per tonne, keeping the import window closed.
Aluminium market summary: Overall, on the macro front, the US Fed's monetary policy showed divergence, with overseas macro sentiment leaning cautious; the central bank conducted a RMB 1,000 billion MLF operation, providing favourable domestic macro conditions. Previous aluminium price levels had suppressed consumption, delaying some demand, while fundamentals provided some support for prices. Overseas, the progress of production cuts at the Icelandic aluminium plant remains a key focus. Aluminium prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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