China's energy-intensive industries face 40% green power mandate by 2030

China's green electricity market reached a milestone in Q1 2025, with nearly 2 trillion green electricity certificates (GECs) traded - roughly one-third of total historical volume. In April, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), alongside other ministries, announced plans to expand mandatory green power consumption to a broader set of energy-intensive sectors. The petrochemical and chemical industries are now expected to accelerate their transition to green power, with a target to meet or surpass the national average share of green power in total electricity consumption (40 per cent) by 2030.

Policy focus: expanding binding green power requirements

• Target sectors: Petrochemicals, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and data centers (in 2024, only the aluminum sector faced mandatory targets).
• Compliance benchmark: By 2030, the proportion of green power in total electricity consumption must meet or exceed the national average responsibility weight for renewable electricity consumption (CRW, estimated at 40 per cent in 2021), with compliance performance verified through GECs.

>>>Implications for power demand

In the chemical sector alone (2022 electricity consumption: 546.1 billion kWh):

• Raising the green power share from below 25 per cent to 40 per cent would create over 82 billion kWh of additional green power demand.
• This is equivalent to 50 per cent of China's total green power trading volume in 2024 and roughly twice Hainan's annual electricity consumption - highlighting the structural change of power consumption in power-intensive sectors.

Short-term headwinds: cost pressure mounting