Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at RMB 20,075 per tonne, with a high of RMB 20,010 per tonne, a low of RMB 19,925 per tonne, and closed at RMB 19,980 per tonne, down 0.12 per cent. Trading volume was 149,000 lots, and open interest was 184,000 lots.
Image source: CAST & ALLOYS
SMM Commentary: On the macro front, the phone call between China and the US may lead to a de-escalation of the trade war, while the rebound in China's May manufacturing PMI and improvement in export indicators provide demand support, indicating that the domestic economy remains resilient. Fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters remained stable, with a decrease in casting ingot volume prompting a temporary destocking trend in domestic aluminum ingot inventory. Cost side, the impact of the Guinea ore incident on alumina prices has eased somewhat, and the real-time cost of aluminum has slightly declined MoM. On the demand side, there is dual pressure from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure in the short term, with the off-season atmosphere intensifying. Overall, the current low inventory and expectations of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term.
Also read: Overview of China's primary aluminium production in May 2025 and forecast for June
Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at RMB 2,906 per tonne, with a high of RMB 2,920 per tonne, a low of RMB 2,827 per tonne, and closed at RMB 2,886 per tonne, down 0.31 per cent. Trading volume was 354,000 lots, and open interest was 295,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: Last week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 600,000 tonnes per year to 87.27 million tonnes per year. It is understood that some imported alumina has arrived at Chinese ports, with supply recovering while demand has not changed significantly. Last week, the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 19,000 tonnes to 2.63 million tonnes. As of June 9, the price of imported alumina has turned from profit to loss, and the import window has closed. In the short term, the alumina market fundamentals will remain relatively loose, and alumina spot prices are expected to be in the doldrums. Subsequent attention should be paid to the capacity changes of domestic alumina enterprises.
Today, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract opened at RMB 19,400 per tonne, with a high of RMB 19,500 yuan/mt, a low of RMB19,070 per tonne, and closed at RMB 19,190 per tonne, up 4.49 per cent. Trading volume was 52,000 lots, and open interest was 9,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: At 9:00 a.m. on June 10, cast aluminum alloy futures were officially listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The listing benchmark prices for the AD2511, AD2512, AD2601, AD2602, AD2603, AD2604, and AD2605 contracts were RMB 18,365 per tonne. In the morning opening, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract once surged by more than 5%, and although the gains slightly pulled back later, they remained at around 4 per cent. By the end of the day session, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at RMB 19,190 per tonne, up 4.649 per cent. Regarding the reasons for the significant increase in the opening price of cast aluminum alloy futures, it is widely believed in the industry that the benchmark listing price of the futures was significantly lower than the spot price, driven by a clear bullish market sentiment. SMM suggests focusing on the price range of RMB 19,000-19,500 per tonne on the first day. In terms of spot prices, according to SMM spot quotes, as of June 10, after a decrease of RMB 100 per tonne, the SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy spot quote fell to RMB 19,800-20,000 tonne, with an average price of RMB 19,900 per tonne.
Also read: The price of imported alumina shifted from profit to loss, and the import window closed: SMM
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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