Yesterday, aluminium prices edged down, while secondary aluminium market quotes varied, with some falling by RMB 100 per tonne and others holding steady. Since September, downstream demand has seen mild recovery, but peak season performance has fallen short of expectations. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises have gradually arranged shutdown plans, with pre-holiday stocking demand providing short-term support to spot prices. Overall, rigid costs coupled with stockpiling demand are supporting prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory pressure remain constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, with close attention needed on raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.
Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy ad2512 contract opened at the day's high of RMB 20,310 per tonne overnight, then fluctuated downward and hit a bottom of RMB 20,220 per tonne, finally closed at RMB 20,285 per tonne, down RMB 55 per tonne or 0.27 per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,494 lots, and open interest was 10,829 lots, with bears mainly increasing positions.
Basis Report: According to SMM data, on September 22, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2511) at 10:15 was RMB 620 per tonne.
Warrant Report: Starting from September 22, 2025, the standard warrant generation business for cast aluminium alloy futures officially commenced. On the first day, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 3,878 tonnes, with total registered volumes by region as follows: Shanghai (1,447 tonnes), Guangdong (426 tonnes), Jiangsu (629 tonnes), Zhejiang (1,045 tonnes), Chongqing (331 tonnes), and Sichuan (0 tonnes).
Industry News: (1) Aluminium alloy imports and exports: Customs data showed that unwrought aluminium alloy imports in August 2025 were 71,000 tonnes, down 16.7 per cent Y-o-Y but up 2.6 per cent M-o-M. Cumulative imports from January to August 2025 totalled 682,500 tonnes, down 14.2 per cent Y-o-Y. Unwrought aluminium alloy exports in August 2025 were 29,100 tonnes, up 28.3 per cent Y-o-Y and 16.7 per cent M-o-M. Cumulative exports from January to August 2025 reached 174,300 tonnes, up 10.7 per cent Y-o-Y. (2) Aluminium scrap imports: Domestic aluminium scrap imports in August 2025 were approximately 172,600 tonnes, up about 25.2 per cent Y-o-Y.
Aluminium scrap side: Spot primary aluminium prices experienced a slight correction on Monday compared to the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminium closing at RMB 20,750 per tonne. Baled UBC prices held steady M-o-M, while shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminium scrap decreased by RMB 100 per tonne M-o-M. In Anhui, aluminium tense scrap quotations collectively dropped by RMB 200 per tonne. With over half of the golden September passed, enterprises in parts of Henan, Jiangxi, and Shandong reported that they had started preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday in advance. Amid aluminium scrap shortages, overall market prices remained high. Aluminium scrap prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs this week, with both downside risks and cost support present. From a macro perspective, the US Fed's interest rate cut intensified market volatility. Although domestic tax clean-up policies are in a transition period, medium and long-term, they will push up tax costs for scrap utilization enterprises and be transmitted to bargain down purchasing prices. On the other hand, the tight supply of aluminium scrap is unlikely to ease in the short term, especially with scarce shredded aluminium tense scrap resources giving suppliers strong bargaining power. SMM expects the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) to hover around RMB 17,300-17,800 per tonne, and baled UBC prices to linger between RMB 15,600-16,100 per tonne. The market needs to closely monitor the pace of tax policy implementation, the sustainability of downstream stocking demand, and the guidance from primary aluminium prices.
Silicon metal: On September 22, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was at RMB 9,100-9,300 per tonne; oxygen-blown #553 at RMB 9,400-9,600 per tonne; #521 at RMB 9,500-9,700 per tonne; #441 at RMB 9,600-9,800 per tonne; #421 at RMB 9,600-9,800 per tonne; #421 for silicone use at RMB 9,800-10,300 per tonne; #3303 at RMB 10,400-10,600 per tonne. Silicon prices in Kunming, Tianjin, Shanghai, northwest China, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, and Xinjiang rose simultaneously.
Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers were concentrated at USD 2,530-2,560 per tonne, while domestic spot prices fell by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 20,000-20,200 per tonne, with immediate import losses widening to over RMB 200 per tonne. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand excluding tax remained at 81-82 baht/kg.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on September 22, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totalled 49,668 tonnes, down 94 tonnes from the previous trading day but up 1,151 tonnes W-o-W (September 15).
Summary: Aluminium prices edged down yesterday, with secondary aluminium market offers mixed—some down by RMB 100 per tonne, others holding steady. Downstream demand has seen a mild recovery since September, but peak season performance fell short of expectations. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises have gradually scheduled shutdowns, with pre-holiday stockpiling demand providing short-term support to spot prices. Overall, rigid costs coupled with stocking demand are supporting prices, but sluggish demand recovery and inventory pressure remain constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term, with close attention needed on raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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