Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract 2602 opened at RMB 21,080 per tonne overnight, hit a high of RMB 21,135 per tonne and a low of RMB 21,030 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 21,130 per tonne, up RMB 20 per tonne, or 0.09 per cent, from the previous trading day. Bears mainly reduced positions.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on December 18, the SMM ADC12 spot price theoretically traded at a premium of RMB 580 per tonne to the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2602) at the 10:15 closing price.
Warrant report: SHFE data showed that on December 18, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 70,192 tonne, an increase of 767 tonne from the previous trading day. Among them, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,757 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Guangdong was 22,571 tonne, an increase of 827 tonne from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Jiangsu was 12,050 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Zhejiang was 24,475 tonne, a decrease of 60 tonne from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Chongqing was 5,919 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Sichuan was 420 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Aluminium scrap: Spot primary aluminium prices edged down slightly on Thursday from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot closing at RMB 21,730 per tonne. The aluminium scrap market was largely stable overall. Baled UBC was quoted in a range of RMB 16,250-16,750 per tonne (tax excluded), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted in a range of RMB 18,000-18,550 per tonne (tax excluded). Prices for clean tapping aluminium wire, mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint, mechanical casting aluminium scrap, scrap motorcycle wheel, and mixed aluminium tensile scrap were basically stable or slightly raised by RMB 25-50 per tonne w-o-w.
The aluminium scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) at 18,200-18,900 per tonne (tax excluded). The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues overall, requiring close tracking of primary aluminium fluctuations, environmental protection policies, and downstream procurement pace, while being wary of the risk of a pullback from highs.
Silicon Metal: (1) Price: Spot silicon metal prices were basically stable this week. Oxygen-blown #553 silicon in East China was at RMB 9,100-9,300 per tonne during the week, and #441 silicon was at RMB 9,300-9,500 per tonne. In the futures market, the most-traded SI contract closed at RMB 8,645 per tonne yesterday, up RMB 360 per tonne w-o-w. Futures prices fluctuated upward this week, but some silicon enterprises were still not strongly willing to sell at low prices.
Downstream users mainly digested low-priced inventory, and market trading volume turned lighter w-o-w. (2) Social Inventory: SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 553,000 tonnes on December 18, down 8,000 tonnes w-o-w. Among them, social inventory in ordinary warehouses was 138,000 tonne, up 2,000 tonne w-o-w, and social inventory in delivery warehouses was 415,000 tonne (including warrants not yet registered and part of the spot inventory), down 10,000 tonne w-o-w. Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc..
Overseas market: Current overseas ADC12 offers held steady at USD 2,620–2,640 per tonne, with import losses near RMB 200 per tonne.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on December 18, the social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 53,400 tonnes, down 1,256 tonnes w-o-w, continuing a slight destocking trend.
Summary: On Thursday, SMM A00 aluminium prices saw a slight correction of 20 per tonne to 21,730 per tonne, while ADC12 prices remained stable at RMB 21,650 per tonne. Aluminium prices fluctuated rangebound, and secondary aluminium market offers were generally steady. Currently, raw material supply is tight, and aluminium scrap traders show a strong willingness to hold prices firm, supporting secondary aluminium costs.
However, aluminium price fluctuations intensified downstream wait-and-see sentiment, with demand marginally weakening and market transactions sluggish. ADC12 prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term, with limited room for change. Downside support comes from rigid cost underpinning due to tight aluminium scrap supply, while upside pressure stems from marginally weakening demand and downstream wait-and-see sentiment triggered by aluminium price volatility. Subsequent attention should focus on raw material circulation, regional environmental protection policies, and downstream order changes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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