Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy 2512 contract opened at RMB 20,705 per tonne overnight, hit a high of RMB 20,760 per tonne and a low of RMB 20,680 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,705 per tonne, up RMB 80 per tonne or 0.39 per cent from the previous close. Trading volume was 3,107 lots, open interest was 11,280 lots, with bears mainly reducing positions.
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Basis daily: According to SMM data, on October 23, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price against the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2512) at the 10:15 AM closing price widened to RMB 640 per tonne.
Warrant daily: SHFE data showed that on October 23, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 47,803 tonnes, an increase of 180 tonnes from the previous trading day. The total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,244 tonnes, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Guangdong was 14,126 tonnes, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Jiangsu was 8,590 tonnes, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Zhejiang was 15,829 tonnes, an increase of 180 tonnes from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Chongqing was 5,014 tonnes, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Sichuan was 0 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Aluminium scrap side: On Thursday, the spot price of primary aluminium rose from the previous trading day, breaking through the 21,000 mark. The SMM A00 spot price closed at RMB 21,040 per tonne, while aluminium scrap market prices adjusted divergently. Baled UBC was quoted centrally at RMB 15,900-16,500 per tonne (tax excluded), shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted centrally at RMB 17,300-17,800 per tonne (tax excluded).
Baled UBC was up RMB 100 per tonne W-o-W, while shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminium scrap were flat W-o-W. Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mechanical casting aluminium scrap in Shanghai widened by RMB 60 per tonne W-o-W to RMB 2,302 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan widened by RMB 60 per tonne W-o-W to RMB 2,299 per tonne.
Silicon metal side: (1) Price: Spot silicon metal prices continued to hold steady this week, with the price centre remaining low. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at RMB 9,300-9,400 per tonne, flat W-o-W, while #441 silicon was at RMB 9,500-9,700 per tonne, down RMB 50 per tonne W-o-W. In the futures market, influenced by market news and the strength of coking coal, prices trended stronger. The SI2511 contract closed higher at RMB 8,705 per tonne yesterday, up RMB 100 per tonne W-o-W; market sentiment warrants attention.
(2) Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics on October 23, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 559,000 tonnes, a decrease of 3,000 tonnes from the previous week. This included 123,000 tonnes in general social warehouses, an increase of 3,000 tonnes from the previous week, and 436,000 tonnes in social delivery warehouses (including portions not registered as warrants and spot inventory), a decrease of 6,000 tonnes from the previous week. Recently, some goods in Xinjiang warehouses continued to be transferred to the Tianjin area, resulting in significant regional inventory changes. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)
Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers held steady at USD 2,550–2,580 per tonne, while domestic spot prices rose by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 20,400–20,600 per tonne, with immediate import losses around RMB 200 per tonne. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand were at THB 83 per kilogram, excluding tax.
Inventory: On October 23, the social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 54,700 tonnes, down 100 tonnes W-o-W, marking a weak destocking trend for two consecutive weeks. Recently, traders' warehouse inflows of alloy ingots have been low, while feedback indicated improved shipments of aluminium alloy ingots, especially non-standard products, driving the reduction in social inventory.
Summary: Currently, aluminium scrap supply remains tight, and procurement costs climbed further during the week. To ensure order fulfilment, enterprises generally made high-priced purchases, with low-priced sources scarce, leading to a continuous rise in overall production costs and subsequently pushing up offers. Overall demand remains resilient, coupled with low finished product inventories at manufacturers and ongoing order delivery pressure, providing some support to market prices. In the short term, supported by rigid cost pressures and a tight supply-demand balance, ADC12 aluminium alloy ingot prices are expected to hold up well. Subsequent focus should be on raw material supply, consumption performance, and inventory changes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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