Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy 2601 contract opened at RMB 21,300 per tonne overnight, hit a high of 21,395 per tonne, touched a low of RMB 21,205 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 21,225 per tonne, down RMB 10 per tonne or 0.05 per cent. Trading volume was 6,905, and open interest was 16,755. The contract retreated after a rapid rise during the day, encountering resistance near previous highs. Shrinking volume and open interest, coupled with the KDJ indicator nearing overbought territory, suggested the futures market showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs with some pressure in the short term. The effectiveness of the support level at 21,205 needs monitoring; a break below could lead to further declines, while holding above it may result in continued consolidation within the high range.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on December 22, the SMM ADC12 spot price showed a theoretical premium of RMB 560 per tonne over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2602) at 10:15.
Industry dynamics: Customs data showed that unwrought aluminium alloy imports in November 2025 were 73,200 tonnes, down 28.2 per cent y-o-y and down 4.1 per cent m-o-m. Cumulative imports from January to November 2025 totalled 914,200 tonnes, down 17.5 per cent y-o-y. Unwrought aluminium alloy exports in November 2025 were 30,600 tonnes, up 51.6 per cent y-o-y but down 1.1 per cent m-o-m. Cumulative exports from January to November 2025 reached 259,300 tonnes, up 17.3 per cent y-o-y.
Warrant daily report: SHFE data showed that the total registered warrant volume for cast aluminium alloy was 70,161 tonne on December 22, an increase of 28 tonne from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,757 tonne, unchanged from the previous day; Guangdong's total registered volume was 22,510 tonne, down 61 tonne from the previous day; Jiangsu's total registered volume was 11,991 tonne, unchanged from the previous day; Zhejiang's total registered volume was 24,564 tonne, up 89 tonne from the previous day; Chongqing's total registered volume was 5,919 tonne, unchanged from the previous day; Sichuan's total registered volume was 420 tonne, unchanged from the previous day.
Aluminium scrap: Spot primary aluminium prices continued to rise on Monday compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at RMB 21,930 per tonne, and the aluminium scrap market followed the upward trend collectively. Baled UBC scrap was quoted in the range of RMB 16,400-16,900 per tonne (tax excluded), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was quoted in the range of RMB 18,100-18,600 per tonne (tax excluded). Prices for baled UBC, clean tapping aluminium wire, and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint were raised by RMB 100 per tonne m-o-m, while aluminium tense scrap prices in some regions such as Jiangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan remained stable today. The aluminium scrap market is expected to continue hovering at highs this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) at RMB 18,000-18,500 per tonne (tax excluded). Overall, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the aluminium scrap market is expected to persist this week. Key factors to track include fluctuations in primary aluminium prices, the implementation of environmental protection-driven production restrictions, and changes in the procurement pace of downstream enterprises, while remaining vigilant about the risk of a pullback from highs.
Silicon metal: On Dec 22, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was at RMB 9,100-9,300 per tonne; oxygen-blown #553 at RMB 9,200-9,300 per tonne; #521 at RMB 9,300-9,500 per tonne; #441 at RMB 9,300-9,500 per tonne; #421 at RMB 9,500-9,800 per tonne; #421 for silicone use at RMB 9,800-10,200 per tonne; #3303 at RMB 10,200-10,500 per tonne. Individual silicon prices in Tianjin also increased. Prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Xinjiang, Shanghai, Sichuan, and north-west China held steady.
Overseas market: Current overseas ADC12 offers rose slightly to USD 2,620-2,650 per tonne, as domestic prices actively increased, narrowing import instant losses to around RMB 100 per tonne.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on Dec 23, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 47,366 tonne, down 165 tonne from the previous trading day and down 1,455 tonne w-o-w (Dec 16).
Summary: In the spot market, SMM A00 aluminium ingot prices continued to rise by RMB 110 per tonne to RMB 21,930 per tonne, while ADC12 prices also raised by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 21,800 per tonne. The continuous strength in aluminium prices drove the secondary aluminium market to actively follow with price increases. Currently, raw material supply tends to tighten, coupled with secondary aluminium enterprises entering the stockpiling stage, aluminium scrap demand rose, and traders' sentiment to hold prices firm was evident, supporting secondary aluminium costs. However, demand side marginally weakened, and overall market transactions performed sluggish. In terms of supply, recent activation of heavy pollution weather alerts in multiple regions led some secondary aluminium enterprises to face production restrictions or halts, causing a slight contraction in supply. Overall, cost support and supply tightening jointly solidify the price bottom, but demand slowdown and aluminium prices fluctuating at highs suppress downstream purchase willingness. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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