Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at RMB 3,130 per tonne, with a high of RMB 3,152 per tonne, a low of RMB 3,100 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,114 per tonne, down 0.48 per cent. The trading volume was 75,000 lots, and the open interest was 217,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continued. The spot alumina market saw sporadic transactions, with transaction prices further slightly declining, centering around RMB 3,200-3,300 per tonne. The domestic alumina export window has closed, and the total registered warrant volume in alumina futures delivery warehouses exceeded 200,000 tonnes. Subsequent alumina exports and transfers to delivery warehouses may struggle to provide sustained demand. Fundamentals side, short-term alumina operating capacity is expected to see simultaneous increases and decreases, with no significant decline in total operating capacity anticipated. This week, the total national alumina operating capacity was 88.26 million tonnes. The alumina fundamentals maintained a slight surplus pattern, and spot alumina prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term.
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminium 2505 contract opened at RMB 20,940 per tonne, with a high of RMB 21,005 per tonne, a low of RMB 20,820 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,925 per tonne, down 0.05 per cent. The trading volume was 10,600 lots, and the open interest was 263,000 lots.
SMM Comments: On the macro front, US consumer confidence plunged in March, while inflation expectations surged. Domestically, the favorable macro tone remains unchanged, with the government emphasising stronger policy measures and fostering positive market interactions to maximise policy effectiveness. These macro factors provided support for aluminium prices. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminium production resumption continued to advance. With spot prices of alumina, petroleum coke, and other auxiliary materials fluctuating downward, cost-side support for aluminium further weakened. During the week, aluminium ingot social inventory continued destocking. Short-term recovery in aluminium processing enterprises persisted, but consumption recovery fell slightly short of expectations. High aluminium prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, limiting operations at some enterprises during the week, resulting in a modest rebound. Meanwhile, spot premiums in various regions were constrained. Aluminium prices are expected to hover at highs in the near term, with close attention to changes in US tariff policies and the actual release of downstream demand. Overall, the macro front presents a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Domestically, the favorable macro tone remains unchanged, while overseas trade barriers increase with significant uncertainty. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand showed growth trends. As the consumption peak season approaches, most sectors saw increases in order volumes and operating rates, coupled with aluminium ingot social inventory destocking, providing strong support for aluminium prices. Under the resonance of macro factors and the industry chain, aluminium prices are expected to fluctuate upward at highs in the short term.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle in its original form without any modifications or edits to the information.
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