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SMM

Alumina supply landscape in surplus, spot prices continue downward trend

4MINS READ

Futures: In the night session, the most-traded alumina AO2601 contract opened at RMB 2,944 per tonne, hit a high of RMB 2,977 per tonne and a low of RMB 2,932 per tonne, and finally settled at RMB 2,967 per tonne, up RMB 30 per tonne or 1.02 per cent, with open interest at 308,000 lots.

This is a picture of aluminium ingot

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Ore side: As of September 17, 2025, the SMM imported bauxite index was at USD 75.44  per tonne, down USD 0.02  per tonne from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at USD 75  per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at USD 70  per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at USD 61.5  per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; the low-grade bauxite self-pick-up price excluding VAT in Shanxi was at RMB 605 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day.

Currently, domestic ore supply in north China remains tight, but amid ample imported ore supply and high absolute bauxite inventory levels, a buyer's market has emerged with sentiment to drive down prices, leading to a slight decline in bauxite prices. Meanwhile, the alumina supply surplus persists, and prices continue to fall, resulting in low acceptance of high-priced bauxite. In the short term, bauxite prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

Spot prices: As of September 17, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at RMB 3,050.08 per tonne, down RMB 5.89 per tonne m-o-m; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at RMB 2,971.5 per tonne, down RMB 5.7 per tonne m-o-m; the SMM Henan alumina index was at RMB 3,038.11 per tonne, down RMB 5.09 per tonne m-o-m; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at RMB 2,998.17 per tonne, down RMB 7.05 per tonne m-o-m; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at RMB 3,207.57 per tonne, down RMB 10.04 per tonne m-o-m; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at RMB 3,180.45 per tonne, down RMB 8.12 per tonne m-o-m. D

uring the day, one tender purchase transaction by an aluminium plant was inquired, equivalent to a Shanxi ex-works price of RMB 2,970 per tonne. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to continue falling, but the pace of decline is slowing.

Industry news:

  • On September 17, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of USD 352  per tonne FOB Brazil, for November shipment.

Spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on September 17, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of RMB 124.08 per tonne against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant report: On September 17, the total registered volume of alumina warrants was flat from the previous trading day at 151,300 mt, with Shandong region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, Henan region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, Guangxi region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, Gansu region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, and Xinjiang region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 151,300 mt.

Overseas Market: As of September 17, 2025, FOB Western Australia spot alumina prices were USD 330  per tonne, with ocean freight rates at USD 24  per tonne. The USD  per CNY selling rate hovered around 7.13, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately RMB 2,930.58 per tonne, which was RMB 119.5 per tonne lower than the SMM alumina index price. The import window remained open.

Summary: Overall, the alumina market fundamentals continued to show a surplus. Supply side, domestic operating capacity for alumina remained high, the import window stayed open, and domestic inventory levels were elevated, sustaining the overall supply surplus in the domestic alumina market. Demand side, aluminium smelters maintained high raw material inventory levels, and spot procurement continued to reflect weak sentiment. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

 

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