Alumina operating capacity rebounds, spot prices expected to pull back under pressure

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded ag2509 alumina futures contract opened at RMB 2,850 per tonne, with a high of RMB 2,864 per tonne, a low of RMB 2,838 per tonne and closed at RMB 2,852 per tonne, down RMB 32 per tonne or 1.11 per cent from the previous close, with open interest at 304,000 lots.

Ore: As of June 13, the SMM Import Bauxite Index stood at USD 74.15 per tonne, down USD 0.2 per tonne from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was USD 74.5 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was USD 70 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was USD 65 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry News:

1. Bauxite Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics on June 13, the total bauxite inventory at nine domestic ports was 22.65 million tonnes, an increase of 1.46 million tonnes from the previous week.
2. Overseas Alumina Transactions: On June 13, 30,000 tonnes of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of USD 366 per tonne FOB Eastern Australia, with an August shipment date.
3. A major alumina refinery in Shandong province lowered its liquid caustic soda purchase price. According to SMM, starting from June 14, a major alumina refinery in Shandong province adjusted the purchase price of 32 per cent ionic membrane liquid caustic soda, reducing it by RMB 10 per tonne from the base price of RMB 830 per tonne. The ex-factory price under the two-invoice system was implemented at RMB 820 per tonne (approximately RMB 2,563 per tonne converted to 100 per cent concentration).
4. Recently, the North Kalimantan aluminium smelter project in Indonesia, undertaken by the Sixth Metallurgical Construction Group, achieved a significant milestone—the first batch of 15 pots were successfully delivered to the project site and all were hoisted into place in one go, marking the project's entry into the core equipment installation phase.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on June 13, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of RMB 358.93 per tonne against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On June 13, the total registered alumina warrant volume decreased by 2,717 tonnes from the previous trading day to 80,100 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Shandong region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Henan region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 300 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Guangxi region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3,001 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Gansu region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Xinjiang region decreased by 2,717 tonnes from the previous trading day to 76,200 tonnes.

Overseas Market: As of June 13, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 370 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 22.00 per tonne. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.20. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately RMB 3,269 per tonne at major domestic ports, which is RMB 18 per tonne higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window open.

Summary: The operating capacity of alumina rose by 1.74 million tonnes per year MoM to 89.01 million tonnes per year, with relatively loose spot supply compared to the previous period. The total weekly inventory of alumina at aluminium smelters increased by 16,000 tonnes to 2.646 million tonnes. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals are expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern, and alumina spot prices are expected to pull back. It is necessary to continuously monitor changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.